This is freaking incredible.
This is taking longer than the Battle of Stalingrad.
I can't speak to Raqqa, but the drive to Mosul had to be carefully executed. Then when they got there, it had to be a block-by-block clearance mission. I spent several months patrolling the streets of eastern Mosul myself. I'm surprised the fight there has progressed as quickly as it has. They even have the airport now (formerly known as FOB Marez and FOB Diamondback). The west side of the city is VERY dense urban. I don't envy anyone fighting in that place, and even I have to admit after my personal dealings with the Iraqi Army and their complete screwing of the proverbial pooch during ISIS' initial offensive, the IA are doing pretty well and they need to keep doing what they're doing.
I'm not sure how Raqqa falls into the grand scheme of things strategically speaking, but the hajis do like to tie themselves to geographical centers (Mecca, Medina, Najaf, mosques in general, etc), so maybe they'll take Raqqa seriously and die en masse in that city.
Another side note: I wonder what's going on with those Syrian rebel groups Obama was so intent on supporting? Have we finally, officially dropped support of those asshats? We could really use the actual Syrian Army (and the Russians) in the fight against ISIS in Syria.
The Syrians, Free Syrian Army, Russians and Turks are now blocked by us. We own the Raqqa theater with the Kurds.
This is it folks, it’s our fight, lock and load. Here we go.
Fantastic response, I learn so much on FR.
Thank u 4 your service..!
^_^
I can tell you from a source I have that progress in the West is going very well in Mosul, with low casualties for FF. This too has to be disheartening to the death cult that we’re destroying.
Raqqa is the official capital of the ISIS Caliphate, Mosul is the de facto Capital. Rumor has it that Abu Bakr al Baghdadi might be caught in Mosul, and the encirclement is nearly complete.
There have been reports that this whole new strategy against ISIS is a “take no prisoners” plan to defeat them in detail. Multiple simultaneous operations were swiftly launched after the new CENTCOM Commanding General Joe Votel took over last year. He has been kicking ass ever since. The thought was that ISIS could not command and control that many things at once, and if they tried, their communications would get leadership targeted. Those operations are now closing in on the last major ISIS strongholds (Mosul and Raqqa).
When the Iraqi Army melted in front of ISIS in Mosul, it was actually coordinated - many viewed ISIS as liberators of the Sunnis, and former Ba’athist intelligence officers working for ISIS invoked the old Ba’athist networks to support a handover. The day after our last troops crossed the border into Kuwait, the Shiite Prime Minister (Maliki) declared the Sunni President a terrorist (punishable by death). He had to flee the country that day, and the Sunnis were cut out across the board from that day on. They were kind of driven to rebel against a sectarian Shi’ite Government in Baghdad.
The Iraqi Army has since reconstituted, and now has a lot more Shi’ite officers (still a lot of Sunnis). They are doing a professional job in Mosul, and did so in Fallujah last year as well. Their Counter-Terrorism (CT) units have distinguished themselves, as have their Special Forces “Golden Division”.
They also have large formations of Shi’ite “Popular Mobilization Units” militias (Hashd al Shaabi) participating, some of whom are straight up Iranian fifth columns, directed by their old “Special Groups” commanders. Iran has provided a bunch of rocket and tube artillery for counter-ISIS operations, and Gen Qassim Sulemani has personally participated on the ground in Iraq for the liberation of Tikrit and Fallujah, where the Shi’ite militias conducted some sectarian war crimes and cleansing ops.
“I wonder what’s going on with those Syrian rebel groups Obama was so intent on supporting?”
Bottom Line: The “moderate” Sunni Arab militias were dropped like a hot potato when Trump was inaugurated. Arms shipments and paychecks from the Americans have halted. Our train and equip mission shifted from those units in NW Syria more than a year ago, with all the new effort going to the Syrian Kurdish YPG/YPJ, and Iraqi Kurdsish Peshmerga - but we still kept financing and supplying the former units, who so famously/repeatedly “lost” their heavy weapons over to ISIS and al Queda. The Syrian Kurds have since recruited lots of local Arab Tribes and Assyrian Christians under their leadership in the unified Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) - which has been reliably kicking ISIS ass ever since.
Turkey was a big supporter (the main commanders and logistics providers) of those “moderate” Arabs - who were mostly jihadis (with lots of money from the Gulf Arabs and weapons from the US - including those captured in Libya). They are still working for the Turks, who have invaded Northern Syria between Azaz and Jarabulus, and are attacking our Kurdish allies with them as we speak.
The Syrian Army has become more active against ISIS since GEN Votel took over CENTCOM. Just this week, they recaptured the ancient city of Palmyra from ISIS in a serious fight. Palmyra is out in the desert area, and is the last city of its size between there and Raqqa 130 miles to the North. Syrian Army in Aleppo Province is only 90 miles to the West or Raqqa.
They are tying down and attriting ISIS, but don’t seem likely to make it to Raqqa before the party starts - the SDF is drawing the cordon in, and is just outside of sniper range in the NE of the city. They will probably shape the battlefield and clear more of the outlying areas, while waiting for reinforcements (Rangers!), heavier weapons, and log stockpiles to jump forward before the assault.
Most of the Main Supply Routes into Raqqa have been cut, except the road to the West, which is guarded by the ISIS garrison at nearby Tabqa. They may start probing the city, or more likely try to seize the 17th Division Base, on the North edge of town - but when the Western road is cut, the conditions will be set for a proper siege. Then once everyone on the assault force gives a thumbs up, the fireworks will commence in earnest.