Removed all doubt?
Things could always change.
Talal Silo is a credible source. Joe Votel - very credible. I’d be honored to go to war under his command.
I don’t doubt him, but politicians and diplomats could always cut a different deal, or some major game changer could occur.
Bottom line: I’m betting the SDF takes Raqqa, that it will be better supported than the Manbij Operation, and that there will be no prison camp full of jihadis to deal with afterwards. I assess it now less likely that the Turks invade Rojava, but that is a long term issue, which will ebb and flow.
This article, in the Kurdish ARA News, raises a few considerations:
GEN Votel visited Kobani the very day after Turkish backed rebels threatened to attack Manbij.
One purpose of attacking Manbij could have been to draw Kurdish forces away from the Raqqa offensive, and delay the fall of Raqqa.
This objective may have been a key factor in the ISIS garrison of al Bab agreeing to turn the town over to the Turks - they expected heavy support to recapture their former stronghold of Manbij (under a different false flag).
Interesting how the Turks don’t seem to have a bunch of ISIS prisoners from al Bab, or any preparations for holding trials - they seem to have just joined forces, or been allowed to leave.
If Turkey goes to war with Syria itself, it will likely have to go to war with Iran as well, with Russia undercutting them from a hundred different directions. This is shaping up like the limit of advance for Turkey, and the closing of the trap for ISIS. If Syria is on board, Russia likely is as well.
(https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-army-liberates-two-villages-near-al-bab-amid-clashes-turkish-army/)
