Given the pathetic state of US armed forces (thanks both to Obama and the Republicans who stood by watching it happen), the US would be extremely hard-pressed to confront two conflicts simultaneously, one in East Asia (China, NK) or Europe (Russia and the Baltics).
Trump could arrange a bargain with the Russians where the annexation of Crimea is recognized in exchange for:
a) withdrawal of forces from eastern Ukraine and a cessation of hostilities there;
b)Some gas/oil deal for Ukraine;
c) No NATO or EU expansion to Belarus or Ukraine (trade treaties OK);
c) Russia re-enters the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces treaty (no Iskanders in Kaliningrad);
c) Russia re-enters the Conventional Forces In Europe Treaty (armor moved east);
d) US and Europe drop trade sanctions;
e) US assists Russia in oil/gas exploration;
d) US, Russia, and Saudis agree to force Iran to cut oil exports and guarantee market share to Russia in exchange;
f)Russia stops arming Iran;
g) Russia and US cooperate against ISIS and partition Syria;
h) Russia agrees to remain neutral in any US-China-NK conflict
You might say this asks a lot of the Russians, we might throw in removal of new, permanent NATO bases from Baltics. The sanctions are hurting the Russians: Putin has already had to cut his defense expenditures. The Russians also have to know that NATO poses no strategic threat to Russia-- this is all about prestige, so if we combine economic incentives with high level cooperation, we can probably get a lot. They also have to know that China poses the only real strategic threat to Russia, especially over the Amur river basin in Siberia, which Russia seized in the 19th century.
I agree. NATO is no threat, but it’s strong enough to stop an invasion. It’d be a no win situation for both sides. Putin can cut a good deal; he can take the exit ramp being offered. Or he can grandstand and continue to see their economy go south. Russian GDP is the size of Spain’s. The USA’s GDP is fifteen times the size of Putin’s. Continuing a new Cold War will only destroy his economy. Trump could open the oil reserves the USA has and destroy Russian exports. We can have a win/win, or not.