Posted on 02/13/2017 9:35:10 PM PST by Texas Fossil
Turkey’s Euphrates Shield operation, which entered its 170th day Feb. 11 having seen the loss of 65 Turkish soldiers, is at its most critical juncture. In an operation launched the night of Feb. 7 from Aqil Hill, a dominating feature west of al-Bab, about 1,300 Turkish troops (700 commandos, 400 tank personnel and about 200 special forces) and nearly 2,000 Free Syrian Army fighters took part. Thirteen Turkish soldiers were killed in the operation. Security sources told Al-Monitor that about 800 Islamic State (IS) militants and 10,000 civilians are still in the town center of al-Bab. IS uses these civilians as "live shields," and the Turkish army and the FSA now face tough urban warfare as they move toward the town center.
As of noon Feb. 11, Turkish troops and the FSA had captured al-Bab silos, the al-Bab Sport Center in the west and the Zahra Mosque area in al-Bab's northwest. Turkish military sources said they have secured 25% of the town center and that heavy clashes are ongoing in the western and northern neighborhoods of al-Bab.
On another nearby front, the Syrian army and its allied militias have seized the Abu Taltal area about 2 miles to the south of al-Bab and are pushing toward the town. If this advance continues, in a day or two the Syrian army and its allied militias will be entering al-Bab, raising the specter of a clash between Turkish army/FSA forces and the Syrian army. There are already reports of rocket exchanges and occasional clashes between the FSA and Syrian army militias to the southwest of al-Bab. In short, the ground has become hot at al-Bab and the next week or so may well determine the fate of Turkey’s Euphrates Shield Operation that was launched Aug. 24.
There were two other important recent developments. First was the arrival of CIA chief Michael Pompeo to Ankara on Feb. 9. We were told that on the agenda of his meetings in Ankara were combating IS, the Raqqa operation, the future of Syria, Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria, the latest situation in Mosul and the Kurdistan Workers Party's Syrian offshoots the Democratic Union Party and the People's Protection Units (YPG), which Turkey considers terrorists. Ankara was also prepared to strongly raise the extradition of Gulen movement leader Fethullah Gulen from the United States.
The other major development was in the field. At 8:40 a.m. Feb. 9, a Russian warplane that took off from Syria’s Khmeimim air base hit a building near al-Bab. Three Turkish tank personnel quartered in the building were killed and 11 others were wounded.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said of the attack that killed the Turkish soldiers, “Russian planes were operating according to coordinates supplied by our Turkish partners. There shouldn’t have been any Turkish soldiers at that location.”
The Turkish military command reacted quickly to the Russian claim. Chief of Staff headquarters said that Turkish soldiers had been at the same location for the previous 10 days and that their coordinates were confirmed to Russians at 11:11 the night before.
In a previous such incident in November, three Turkish soldiers were killed in attack by a Syrian plane.
The question to ask is whether this "friendly fire" attack that coincided with the Ankara visit of the CIA director was an accident Russia wasn’t fully responsible for or whether Russia wanted to teach a lesson to Turkish officials not to get too close to the United States as they were conferring with Pompeo. Russia, in its explanation, said that it prepares target lists with information the Syrian army provides from the ground and that this intelligence data is coordinated with Turkey, indicating the fatal attack wasn’t really all Russia's fault.
What is interesting is that it is not Russia but Turkey that is striving to prove it was an accident and downplay it. However, many in Turkey believe the Syrian army might have manipulated the field intelligence and intentionally misled the Russian air force to attack the Turkish soldiers. This "Assad has misled Russia" thesis is popular in pro-government circles in Ankara.
Kerim Has of Moscow State University told Al-Monitor he doesn’t believe Russia was seeking to punish Turkey. “Anyway, Turkey has been carrying out its operations in northern Syria mostly within the parameters drawn up by Russia. Moreover, Moscow has managed to get Ankara to support Russia’s ‘new Syria’ approach. The best two recent examples of this were Ankara’s lack of reaction to the Russian proposal for cultural autonomy for Syrian Kurds in the draft Syrian constitution and Ankara’s apparent easing of its demands for Assad to give up his post,” he said.
Has said the Russian air attack on Turkish soldiers indicates a serious deficiency in intelligence cooperation between NATO member Turkey and Russia in the al-Bab region. ‘‘Russia, to maximize its interests in Syria, will want to use Turkey’s pain from this incident and push for deeper cooperation in military and especially in intelligence fields. We should not be surprised by a more intense joint military planning in their Syria operations,” he added.
Of course, the US would not be very pleased with closer Russia-Turkey military-intelligence relations.
Has also doesn’t believe that Russia will approve of the expansion of Turkey’s sphere of influence in northern Syria to totally dominate the al-Bab region. He doesn’t think Russia will look favorably upon Turkey’s participation in a Raqqa operation after al-Bab.
Al-Bab is attributed strategic significance by Turkish public opinion, with mostly chauvinistic media reporting and constant bombastic references to it by top officials. Whether al-Bab is captured is important for domestic political consumption, as the referendum on an executive presidency nears. The liberation of al-Bab before the April 16 constitutional referendum on presidential powers could be played up by the Justice and Development Party government as a Turkish military victory.
But al-Bab is gradually losing its strategic importance in the war against IS as the emphasis shifts to Raqqa. About 220,000 civilians live in Raqqa and about 10,000 IS militants are deployed there. Will IS defend Raqqa to the end, as it is doing at Mosul and al-Bab? IS defenses and fortifications in Raqqa and in its periphery suggest it will be a fight to the end. Clashes in Raqqa, more than a special forces operation, will be conventional urban warfare where tanks, heavy armor and artillery will have to be used. The infantry assault against Raqqa today is mostly by the heavily Kurdish YPG in the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). This force has already reached 8 miles from the north and northwest of Raqqa as part of the Wrath of the Euphrates Operation. The key question now is who will provide the heavy armor (tanks and armored fighting vehicles) and long-distance artillery that will be badly needed. Without sufficient armor and artillery support, the SDF will not be able to clear out Raqqa, even with US air support.
That may explain why James F. Jeffrey, a former US ambassador to Ankara, says a Turkish army-SDF combination supported by the US is an indispensable requirement to liberate Raqqa.
Here are the available options for those that will participate in the Raqqa operation:
A Turkish-FSA operation supported by the US: This is the option Turkey is trying to have the US accept. The goal is to remove the Democratic Union Party (PYD) from the equation and thus its control of the Kurdish Kobani canton to the east of the Euphrates River and north of Raqqa. But it is also known that the US doesn’t favor this option that sidelines the SDF.
A Turkish and SDF operation with US support: Washington strongly supports this option, but it is resisted by Turkey because of its reservations about the Kurdish PYD. Washington will have to work very hard to persuade Turkey to accept this option.
With US and Russian support, a Turkish-FSA and Syrian army operation. Given the power struggle between the US and Russia and the inevitable questions of how much accord there could be between Ankara and Damascus, this is an option with a very low probability.
A SDF joint operation with the Syrian army with the support of the US and Russia. Washington would definitely go for it; it would mean sidelining Turkey should Ankara totally reject options 2 and 3.
A PYD and Syrian army operation under Russian support; it is not clear whether the US would approve an option that leaves it out.
All these options have a major problem: The US and Russia have not decided whose influence will dominate Syria’s north. I believe Russia thinks of all of northern Syria as its area of influence, while Americans see the east of the Euphrates as the US zone of influence and the west of it as Russia’s. As this US-Russia imbroglio about northern Syria plays out on the field as more blood and tears, it is time for those in Washington and Moscow to decide what they want and play their cards honestly.
I pray we have a better solution than is normal for this part of the world.
This conflict affects both Iraq and Syria. Not all elements involved are the same between them. But both wars are complicated.
200 Kurds and US bombing freeed Kobane. The SDF Kurds can do it again without Turk armor. This article is full of sht.
There also were recent incursions by Turks in Kobane which were oushed back. Seems like Turkey is playing down the attacks by Russia so its own attacks in kobane get not notified
Absolutely.
Screw the wannabe caliphate turks, and all their filthy islamist supporters.
Wherever they may be.
There were not 200 Kurds in Kobani. The number was much higher and mostly women. And yes, they were facing the worst torture if they failed and they hung on in a heroic effort. At the time some of us here did everything we could to embarrass Obozo and the administration to giving them air support. We tried to get US media exposure to raise public awareness, I think that succeeded to some extend. AND finally they did give them air support.
When that happened Turk tanks were poised on the border cheering the ISIS bastards to kill em all.
Turkey under Erdogan is not an ally.
The SDF did not save Kobani. Kurds saved Kobani.
There is NO WAY that Turkey and SDF will fight together in Raqqa. Not going to happen.
Turkey never intends to leave either Iraq or Syria.
I think eventually Assad will fall at the hands of his own people.
You don’t have a clue if you champion the Islamist Erdogan. He is destroying Turkey and the region. He is just like Obama. Obama, Hillary, Erdogan and host of others created this Chaos. None of them will solve/end it.
Not championing Erdogan in my comment
Kurds are part of SDF. I said “Kurd SDF”, meaning exclusively Kurds were in Kobane
I don’t think it was SDF during Kobani. It was only YPG & YPJ.
There were other groups there from time to time too. I think some from up in the mountains. They would rather not identify with. I read a details description once. The women were a large part of the force when it came to the final battles.
I have been watching this for a long time. Especially from Siege of Kobani.
We finally gave them air support. Brett McGurk was there and helped them. There were some air drop of supplies and light arms too. They appreciated his assistance. Trump kept him in the State Department.
Here was my first tweet on Twitter about Kobani:
https://twitter.com/TX_1/status/521152593209589761
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Here is the first real article I Tweeted about Kobani:
https://twitter.com/TX_1/status/521463748679446528
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Here is the first report by fighters from Kobani:
https://twitter.com/TX_1/status/521486715190792193
It has been a long time my friend. The Siege started in September. I don’t remember exactly when I first heard about it.
A border town to Turkey owned by ISIS not strategic objective Mr Kerry?
It sure is for IsIs needing smuggling supplies!
What the hell!!! I guess he simply chickened out
John F Kerry has been a traitor since 1971. He has never changed.
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