A while back I read Paul Johnson’s “The Johnstown Flood,” which describes the 1889 flood caused by the failure of an earthen dam after many days of heavy rain. Like the Oroville Dam, it had shown signs of erosion and cracks for several months, but the engineer who urged that it be repaired was ignored. The water roared down a narrow gorge for 15 miles and and wiped out several towns along the way. It reached Johnstown in the late afternoon, and people who saw it coming said they couldn’t see any water. All they could see was a 23’-high rolling wall of trees, railroad cars, buildings, dead animals, and other debris. I’ll never forget that description.
Up to eight inches of rain between now and Monday for the mountains around Oroville.
What must be remembered about the terrible situation of the Johnstown flood compared to the Oroville Dam is that the Oroville Dam is literally an order of magnitude (10x) larger than the South Fork dam above Johnstown.
I read the book several decades ago, but if I remember correctly, the glitterati who owned shore front real estate were very much against the idea of drawing down the water level for safety because it would have made for an ugly shore line.