I think you are right. The EM spillway is going to fail on the left side first.
Just got done watching another live feed and it is for sure running around the outside of the EM spillway. The area is where there is a parking lot and it is spilling over that area.
Depends on how well that ground holds up there if it breaches there or not.
That area is just to the left of the em spillway.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wTyCPPqv5pc
This video shows the wide spillway with water flowing over it for a few seconds at the very beginning. Is this the emergency spillway? I’m guessing it is. From other videos this spillway looks to be about 30 feet tall, and has lots of water flowing over, causing erosion.
The main spillway(?) is the long narrow chute and is between the wide spillway and the dam. Yeah - 30’ of water going downstream will be a disaster. And it sounds like only a matter of time.