the models for monday are scary
it may be the wettest storm of the season
inflows may exceed 200,000 cfs at times IMO
latest data in shortly
An inch to an inch and a half on Friday afternoon and night, and 3.5 inches Sunday night through Tuesday midday. (Quincy, California. 40 miles upriver between the middle and north forks of the Feather River)
https://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=Quincy%2C+CA&MR=1
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=39.936837392000484&lon=-120.94717696599969
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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA
311 AM PST Thu Feb 16 2017
DISCUSSION
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A light shower threat continues on Sunday as upper shortwave disturbances ripple through southwest flow aloft. Winds and precipitation increase rapidly Sunday night as a stronger, moister Pacific storm moves onshore.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Monday THROUGH Thursday)
Models continue to trend stronger with the system forecast to move into NorCal Sunday night and Monday as it taps deeper moisture over the eastern Pacific. Both GEFS and recent operational runs of the GFS and ECMWF have been indicating that the deeper moisture is likely to reach further north with an 24-30 hour period of moderate to heavy precipitation possible across much of the region. Unfortunately, the focus of heaviest QPF is lining up on the northern Sierra north of Highway 50 up into the Feather River basin.
Have boosted wind and QPF forecasts for Monday with 1-3 inches of rain possible in the valley and 3-10 inches of rain for the foothills and mountains. Snow levels forecast to briefly climb back into the 6000-8000 foot range as deeper moisture moves up from the southwest, but will return to around 4000-5000 feet by Monday night resulting in heavy snow across the higher elevations. Needless to say, impacts from the increased runoff, wind and heavy snow will be considerable.
Upper trough forecast to move overhead later Tuesday into Wednesday resulting in showers, but lower snow levels and lighter QPF. Potential for a couple days of drier weather late next week.