My guess is that the Democrats ultimately don’t filibuster, based on straightforward political calculations: There are at least half a dozen Democratic Senators from red states who are up for re-election in 2018 and will be on the hot seat. Although Democrat constituents in their states will demand a filibuster, doing so without any good justification other than refusing to approve any conservative Supreme Court appointee from Trump will make them extremely likely to be defeated. And if even a few Democrats refuse to filibuster, then suddenly Gorsuch has “bipartisan support”, which makes it just that much harder for the remaining Democrats to justify a filibuster. The only way out of this trap is for Chuck Schumer to himself pull the plug on the filibuster, and absorb the heat for that decision. Then the red state Democrats can’t be blamed for going along with Chuck.
Ultimately Schumer has no other choice. Without a plausible excuse, other than ideology, for blocking Trump’s nominee, Republicans will resort to the nuclear option and blame it on the Democrats’ intransigence. So the Democrats would accomplish nothing except to badly damage their most vulnerable Senators in the process (by forcing those Senators to take a stand which will hurt them no matter which way they go), and make it easier to confirm Trump’s next Supreme Court nominee.
But first there will be an enormous amount of posturing by Schumer and other Democrats, to try to prove to their far-left base that they put up a good fight before accepting the inevitable.
Popcorn manufacturers are going to make a fortune.
Addendum: I expect most if not all Democratic Senators to vote “No” on Gorsuch on the final vote, after enough have first voted “Yes” on cloture to avoid a filibuster. They’ll try to tell their left-wing base that they had no choice, in order to prevent the “nuclear option” from killing off the filibuster in the future when a liberal court seat is at stake, but that their “No” vote still showed where their hearts were. This “cut the baby in half” explanation will be met with derision, but it will still be their best alternative.
Correct. This is not the hill for the Dems to die on. They’ll let vulnerable Dems vote yes on cloture and, if necessary, no on confirmation. The Dem base is too stupid to understand the distinction.
Schumer is not stupid. If McConnell goes nuclear now, the Dems lose all leverage w the next appt.
Not a single republican will oppose this nomination, nuclear or otherwise. This is a home run.