I read an analysis of the costs. The author said that Merkel would give in and spend the 2% of GDP because that was only a fraction of what they’d need to spend if the US withdrew from NATO. Germany and the EU nations don’t have a military. They, essentially, have a palace guard with a few ships, planes and tanks. If they suddenly got into a real fight without NATO, they would be a walk-over.
The question is, with Germany over-extended by their “guests” what will have to suffer? She will have an awful political problem on her hands. Raise taxes or cut the freebies? They can’t just produce more money. Not and stay in the EU.
Which is why, in large part, they can spend so much on social programs / public health care, etc.
Many EU countries don’t even have tanks anymore. And their “military” budgets are packed with non war fighting bills like day care for those in the military.
I don’t think that present day Europeans have the mindset to fight for their countries or their freedoms.We’ve provided an umbrella of protection free for too long.
That is exactly why I have said, (for 40 years,) that the US military has funded European socialism. The US has paid the price for their 3 month vacations and other fun and games.