There is no doubt the smart phone is now a commodity, the free/subsidized update cycle is over and Margins naturally will decline in the industry....
This isn’t a bad thing, its just business...
The question is, will Apple really come up with the next big thing... or not... there is little doubt ipod and itunes changed the music industry and iphone changed the communications industry....
The question is will Apple come up with the next big thing? And that remains to be seen.
Apple has plenty of time, money and research dollars to do it... but that doesn’t always mean success.... but given how little R&D is spent by other companies... and the sheer amount of cash Apple has on hand, pretty good chance they will indeed be on the forefront of the next big thing, whatever it is.
Apple may seem to be in a lull, but who else has driven the PC industry, then the cellphone industry, even remotely to the degree that Apple has? Name a highly successful form factor or an interface used in either, that does not owe a very deep debt to Apple for inspiration. There isn’t one.