Replies

The F-35 is not going to be canceled. The project is too far along, aircraft are already being put into service, and its capabilities are genuinely needed. At most, it may be stretched out, pared back, and supplemented with a batch of new but cheaper FA-18s with extra capabilities derived from the F-35. I suspect that Trump is actually playing a deeper game intended to help the US Navy out of a severe bind caused by a looming gap in its fleet of carrier.

Much of the total program cost of the F-35 is money already gone out the door for research and development and for production tooling and stockpiles. Cancelling the F-35 now would abandon most of the value of those prior expenditures -- and do so just as the going forward per aircraft cost is going down through better management and production efficiencies. More can be saved by multiyear contracting and some tough, Trump led bargaining with the prime contractor and subs.

Is continuing the F-35 worth the cost? It should be kept in mind that it comprises not one but three cutting edge fifth generation fighter/strike models with different costs and capabilities designed for three different sets of missions.

The conventional take off and landing F-35A model is now reaching the Israelis, who have eagerly awaited its extraordinary stealth, integrated sensor suite, and battle management capabilities. Analysts regard Israel's F-35A's as providing a new and nearly unstoppable strike capability against regional adversaries, including Iran. Given Trump's strong pro-Israel views, Israeli enthusiasm for the F-35 will make for a potent argument against cancellation.

The most troubled and expensive model, the F-35B, is a short takeoff/vertical landing (STOVL) variant intended to replace the Harrier formerly relied on by the Marines. The F-35C is thus meant to operate from austere forward bases and air-capable ships near combat zones. The Marines regard the F-35B as essential to their mission. With a retired Marine general as Secretary of Defense, the F-35B program seems likely to continue.

That leaves the F-35C, the Navy's carrier version. Even if that model of the F-35 goes forward -- which is what I expect -- the Navy will still be short of fighter and strike aircraft because its current aircraft fleet is aging out of service. My guess is that by threat, bluster, and bargaining Trump will end up getting the Navy some needed enhanced capability FA-18s on the cheap to fill in that gap, along with some cost paring from the F-35 bill.

While supporters and critics will debate the cost accounting, Trump will have assured that the Navy gets both its model of the F-35 and some new, improved version FA-18s. And Boeing will rack up new export sales from such an aircraft, which it will promote as a non-stealthy F-35 that will dominate most adversaries.