exactly that.
And most serious people don’t even look that closely at the Unemployment Rate, because it always has been one where a lot of assumptions have to go into its creation. But that doesn’t mean that the assumptions are cynical, or are intentionally skewed by politically motivated evildoers.
The trajectory of non-farm payrolls, the hours worked and the average wages are the best indicators of whether or not we are getting to a point of tight labor markets.
At 180k a month in employment gains, we have soaked up a lot of the decline in labor participation, but not all of it, and the relatively slack pace of wage gains indicates that we are likely not yet at a place where there are significant inflation risks.
So the job market has improved significantly since the last recession, but we’re not flashing danger signs that the economy is overheating.
It's super controversial but taken as a whole this is the same conclusion I come to. My guess is that there are an awful lot of others on the FR who concur, they're just not nearly as noisy as them that don't.