Right about 1 in 3 chance. I watched silvers prediction on various things and my take on him was that he was setting a lot of stuff close to 50 50 because he knew everything was a cluster f@@k. I actually thought that he just said “ i punt” . So in that sense silver did ok.
Which puts him miles ahead of the many who predicted a solid Clinton win.
Silver tried hard to be accurate. In the last week, he continually pointed out that the national polls were not corresponding to the swing state polls.
So, Hillary really really won California, but lost where it was close.
Best. Election. Ever.
Still!