It has to break his way in the battleground states.
It doesn't matter anywhere else. I think that most of the third party votes are "protest" votes in deep blue and red states where it wouldn't make any difference even if they voted for one of the two major party candidates.
You are right I do believe.
Latest poll released yesterday..... Trump is within 3 in NM. Johnson’s home state. Johnson is collapsing as we speak and has been for a month. 90% of his vote is going to Trump there.