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Good point.
While Hillary is comfortably ahead in polls in many of the “blue” states won by Obama, she is not getting the margin of victory which Obama got.
Remember too, Obama won re-election in 2012 with less support than he got in his first election. He got about 51% of the popular vote, to about 47% for Romney, with the rest scattered among other candidates.
bottom line is that if Hillary is winning these Democrat states with a lesser margin than in 2012, then these trends are likely happening everywhere. And thus Trump has an excellent chance of winning.
Good point. That would be Trump +7 nationwide. I don’t actually believe it’s that close, but it’s a hint that Hillary is several points behind Trump - among living voters. We cannot get complacent and let things slide on Election Day. Remember that fictional, dead, and illegal voter turnout is 100% democrat. We have to overwhelm not just the parasitic and insider democrats but also their fraud. We need to put everything we have into Election Day this year.
Mont. Co., OH Rs (INCLUDING I’s allocated) are outperforming 2012 by 6.
So, could be 6 point swing nationally. That’s PA, MI.
The water is beginning to top the dam!
I’ve mentioned this on other New York State polling related threads that I bet once you get out of Albany, NYC-Manhattan and student areas like Syracuse, Donald probably does very well in places like Watertown-Ogdensburg, Rochester, Buffalo, Central Leatherstocking, most of Long Island, White Plains, Schenectady, etc.
Trump can get 45%
If Clinton polls less than 90% of the black vote , she will lose virtually every battleground state.
“A couple of quick points. Romney lost by 4 nationally and lost New York by 28. If Trump is losing by 17 in this Siena College Poll of New York, my guess is he is up nationwide.”
Devil’s Advocate here: NY is Trump’s home state. He always would do better than Romney in NY. I’d be more encouraged to see him doing better than Romney in CT, NJ and MA.
I personally know of three Latinos, four AA, several Asians, and a lot of Jews voting for Trump....in NYC of all places! I was shocked when they finally came out and admitted it :)
Siena last poll in 2012 had Obama +24
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ny/new_york_romney_vs_obama-2868.html
Taking 1 state, the home state of one of the candidate’s and extrapolating that to the entire country is pretty shaky. It’s not like their aren’t national polls to look at.
And Obama only won with 48% of the people who voted things have CHANGED.
The Siena College Research Institute has some relationship with the New York Times, although I did not look into it to see what this entails.
I live in Cohoes, NY about 5 miles from Siena and I can tell you that Loudonville itself has more Trump signs out than Hillary. Also the upstate Cental Leatherstocking region hates Hillary and all have Trump signs out; rural Saratoga County where we were driving yesterday had Trump signs (no Hillary, maybe one), and the southern tier is all in for Trump.
There are almost no Hillary signs and there are plenty of Trump signs, including the capital district suburbs. Waterford has Johnson signs out which means the blue collar union democrats there don’t want Hillary either, even if they won’t vote Trump, and they may vote Trump quietly.
Clinton may win New York but not by 17. No way.
Siena (Franciscan) is polluted with CINO liberals.
Just heard Trump in Iowa and he hit another homer.
I think New York State is open. So many people will not publicly admit in New York City that they are voting for Trump, yet, man-on-the-street polling suggests they will.