[CatOwner]

Dear Lord this thread is all over the place, from believing this election will be won on Election Day to “might as well get on the ledge now”.

[lovesdogs]

My ledge has a comfy chair and a well stocked cooler. I’ve crawled in and out of that window many times in the last two weeks.

[JerseyDvl]

I certainly believe it can be won and am optimistic except for the early voting numbers in this state. If Nevada is lost Donald can move on to the next battleground state where the cheating hasn’t been too overwhelming.

[kara37]

I don't know if this guys numbers are correct or not, but it did make me feel better. It might help a few people that are hanging off the ledge too.

Cicatrizatic said...

The media is declaring victory for Hillary in Nevada based on early vote numbers. As usual, they are ignoring the above-mentioned variables.

I just ran the numbers. 767,000 Nevadans have voted so far. Among the ballots returned: 42% Democrat, 37% Republican, 21% Independent.

To allocate the votes to specific candidates, I averaged the cross-tabs on Democrats, Republicans, and Independents from the last 3 Nevada polls. I did not include the previous poll before that (Emerson) as it was taken 10 days ago. The last 3 polls are all within the last week.

Based on the last 3 Nevada polls, the cross-tabs are:

Democrats: 82% Clinton, 14% Trump

Republicans: 85% Trump, 9% Clinton

Independents: 46% Trump, 34% Clinton

As you can see, Trump has a significant cross-over advantage and handily wins Independents.

Applying these cross-tabs to the early vote numbers, you get:

Trump - 360,413 votes Clinton - 344,459 votes

That puts Trump at a 2% lead.

Obviously this is all contingent on the poll cross-tabs being accurate. But based on the available data, Trump is likely narrowly winning Nevada.