Posted on 11/05/2016 4:18:22 AM PDT by FlyingFish
WASHINGTON, D.C. – A cliff-hanger presidential election, major issues at stake, an estimated $6 billion spent in the 2012 campaigns and an eight million person increase in the eligible voters all failed to sustain the upward momentum for turnout from 2004 and 2008.
Voter turnout dipped from 62.3 percent of eligible citizens voting in 2008 to an estimated 57.5 in 2012. That figure was also below the 60.4 level of the 2004 election but higher than the 54.2 percent turnout in the 2000 election.
Despite an increase of over eight million citizens in the eligible population, turnout declined from 131 million voters in 2008 to an estimated 126 million voters in 2012 when all ballots are tallied. Some 93 million eligible citizens did not vote.
The turnout percentage of eligibles voting was down from 2008 in every state and the District of Columbia, except two – Iowa and Louisiana. The turnout numbers of citizens who cast ballots were down in every state but six – Delaware, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, North Dakota and Wisconsin.
Turnout was down for both Republicans and Democrats, falling 4.2 percentage points for the Democrats from 33.0 percent of eligible citizens in 2008 to 28.8 this year; and 1.2 percentage points for the GOP from 28.4 in 2008 to 27.2 this year.
(Excerpt) Read more at cdn.bipartisanpolicy.org ...
Voter fraud should be factored into that.
If electorate was D +1.6 in 2012 with Obama on the ballot, that’s good news for Trump. I would expect a significantly more Republican electorate this year.
There is no bipartisanship
No, this is not correct.
There is a centralized exit voting poll system, whereby the big polling agencies divide up the exit polling process and contribute to having more accurate combined results.
2012 was D+6:
http://ropercenter.cornell.edu/polls/us-elections/how-groups-voted/how-groups-voted-2012/
I am convinced that Romney’s “moderate” Republican history and Mormon religion were both factors that depressed Republican turnout in 2012.
The “Mormon” factor is _very_ difficult to pin down in polling—most people just won’t talk about it (or in same cases even acknowledge it to themselves) but I believe it was a factor.
Some states did dump their rolls and forced people to come in. It would be interesting to see the tally on registered voters who existed in 2004, 2008 and 2012, then compare to today.
I left Virginia in 2013, and registered in another state as I moved. My gut feeling is that they still have me listed on some roll in Virginia. I knew military folks who moved three times in the 2000 to 2012 period, and they were likely registered in three separate states.
I’m retired military so exactly what you mean.
What I find really interesting in your link is the breakdown of votes for HS grads...51-48 Obama over Romney, which almost perfectly aligned to the popular vote. This time around, Trump is killing it with this same group. Maybe, it means something. Seems reminiscent of 1980 when Reagan snagged this group. Are the Reagan democrats coming out in full force again?
Bottom line, lets prove these a##clowns and a##hats wrong
I don’t think it was the Mormon factor; it was the wimp factor.
He really only got close during the second debate when he went after Benghazi. Once he quit fighting, it was over. Romney, like H. W. Bush, gave up—almost like it was planned. That, and the ubiquitous vote fraud the Republicans have allowed for decades finished him off.
Cowards never win, and the GOPe defines cowardice and duplicity.
Then pray, praise God, and pass the ammunition
I think the great irony and karma of this election may be that The Clinton-led overaampling of polls over the last few months significantly contributed to an air of over-confidence that contributed to lower turnout among Democrats generally, along with some of their core demographic constituencies (AAs for example), and to the extent that this carries over to Election Day then the unintended consequence of that poll manipulation may be to cost her the election, as it has little of the intended effect of discouraging the trump vote but has likely done more to keep her own voters from turning out.
I think the great irony and karma of this election may be that The Clinton-led overaampling of polls over the last few months significantly contributed to an air of over-confidence that contributed to lower turnout among Democrats generally, along with some of their core demographic constituencies (AAs for example), and to the extent that this carries over to Election Day then the unintended consequence of that poll manipulation may be to cost her the election, as it has little of the intended effect of discouraging the trump vote but has likely done more to keep her own voters from turning out.
How can you know all this when election day is Tuesday?
Sorry misread the dates.
>>Are the Reagan democrats coming out in full force again?
Well, at least the political type. My ex-wife is a great example of that type. She hated political contests, and would only vote sometimes, and because I pressed her to. She didn’t vote in 2008 or 2012, because although she detested Obama, she was uninspired by the GOP candidates. But she is fully on the Trump train, even volunteering for the campaign. She was similarly excited about Perot in ‘92. These are people who ordinarily do not vote because they do not believe in the system itself.
It’s 36 years since the 1980 election. An entire generation has passed away, and a new generation has replaced them. Manufacturing has gone from 22% of employment in 1980 to about 8% now. The Reagan Dem as a phenomenon is not as pronounced, mainly because the social conservative unionist Dems who voted R in that election have mostly switched parties by now.
Does anyone outside of the Clinton-media believe this is going to happen in 2016?
Many blacks must appreciate that they or their children can become president. But other than Michael Jackson, how many black men have ever wanted to become old white women?
>>The “Mormon” factor
I know several evangelical Christians who hated Bush and McCain because they were more militaristic than Kerry and Obama, respectively. They feared Romney because of his “cult” religion, and his NWO foreign policy.
They are fully on board with Trump.
This is entirely anecdotal, but I do think they are representative of a segment of evangelicals.
Maybe you both are talking about different things?
Youseem to be talking of election vote/exit polling.
They seem to be talking of eligible voters/voter registrations?
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