Posted on 11/02/2016 6:26:11 AM PDT by Kaslin
It was “good polling” a couple of weeks ago. Strange how that works.
I suspect the Clinton campaign will try one last dirty trick, releasing information about a Trump “scandal” in the next day or two. Unless it is something absolutely devastating, it won’t work. Most likely, they’ll try to recycle old charges about “unpaid taxes” or something like that. It’s been my theory that their original strategy was to unleash all of the women with the sexual assault allegations right about now, when it would receive maximum publicity, while leaving the Trump campaign with no time left to refute those charges. However, they were forced to play that card earlier than planned to divert attention away from all of the Wikileaks revelations that started coming out and getting traction. They took their best shot, and now they’re out of ammunition.
“Sorry. It’s just not what we see at all; it’s not what other people seem to have,” a senior Clinton aide said to Clinton’s traveling press pool. ????
Clinton’s traveling cess pool is more like it
I was surprised to see several TV ads (about 3 of HRC; 2 of DJT) during the World Series broadcast last night. I frankly think that the CNN, CBS, NBC, MSNBC, and ABC regular “news broadcasts” were more passionate ads in favor of HRC than any of her ads. The MSM has sure gone whole hog for her.
The dems lived that poll when it said Clinton was up 12
Why, of cuss.
Hahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!
If they think the current polling is “horrible,” wait till they see the poll of November 8.
Remember that Gallup gave up on presidential election polling after their 2012 fiasco. In 1936 Gallup polled about 50,000, there was no caller id, and cell phones and the internet weren't even anyone's wildest fantasy. Gallup probably had close to a 100% call "take" rate in the evening. If a pollster has a 10% (or less) call "take" rate, talking about a "margin of error" is just silly.
What most polls are measuring is the *claimed* candidate preference of lonely people who have nothing better to do in the evening than to talk with co-eds, and the amount of "pixie dust" that the pollster adds to the results. (Heavy on the pixie dust.) Are voter demographics going to be the same in 2016 as in 2008 and 2012? Almost certainly not.
If a pollster claims it's "tied" they probably aren't going to be off by more than 5%.
(The only way around the poll sampling problem that I see is what Rand/USC/LA Times is doing, and THAT gets pretty expensive!)
What it doesn’t say, of course, is that the poll sample went from Democrats +9 to Democrats +10 during that time which means the news is even worse than what they are reacting to.
And you can successfully shoot down several other polls by simply looking at Trump’s lead with men vs Hillary’s often smaller lead with women and deduce that women are oversampled in these polls to get the overall number.
Another key indicator is Independents. If Trump leads with Republicans and Independents but is behind in the overall poll, that tells you it is cooked with too many Democrats.
2012 final election results were D+6?
On that comment re “bad polling,” I actually agree with Hillary. There is no fecking way any realistic poll should use a turnout model of D+10.
Baghdad Hillary? Right, Chris Matthew?
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