I would agree. Although I understand why the question is asked, I don't believe there will be flock of third-party supporters moving in the next few days.
Of course, care should be taken in interpreting any of these numbers as all are under the margin of error. Statistically, these results say the race is tied. Personally, for a number of reasons, I think that Trump probably has a 5 point lead or so in New Hampshire.
The MOE is important, and skewed demographics, and like you say, all of those things have to be weighed against personal experience and other signs of Trump enthusiasm versus Clinton demoralization.
I agree with your 5 point assessment.
I’d make it across the board nationally.