This website below is probably bias to a degree, I’ve double checked their numbers with other polls and they are usually off 3 or 4 points, but even with that, it don’t look good at all for Trump. He’s got to pretty much pull off a miracle at this point. Pennsylvania absolutely infuriates me. Here is this woman Hillary who told them directly that she is going to destroy their economy by shutting down coal mines, steel mills, more regulations, more EPA fascism, and what does Penn. do? They support her! WTF? Same with New Mexico where Clinton is ahead by 10 points. Are they kidding me? They got the Mexican version of ISIS on the other side of their border and these absolute morons are supporting a woman who wants to get rid of borders?
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.html
Its going to be R +2.
IBD and other polls are way off in their voter turnout estimate.
They’re in the tank for Hillary to such an extent they ignore the underlying data to favor their ideological bias.
Last time they were this way off was in 2014 and we all know how it turned out.
You need to offer a secret hand-shake before making a post like that one.
You sound like a Hillary staffer trying to imitate right-wing talking points.
It looks like almost all polling institutes have decided on a D+5% to D+7% model. That is as much as or more than Obama got.
The only way you can even come close to that result with a very unpopular candidate like Clinton is either that Trump scares so many voters, or that they try to correct for vote fraud.
Personally, I do not buy any of those arguments.
Watch where they are travelling and not travelling. That speaks volumes about which states are now in contention. Trump is travelling to NM, CO and MI. Clinton is in Florida and NC. If MI, NM and CO are in contention, it’s Trump on election night, and Trump early.
The consensus on poll models is wrong, this unusual election will stress flawed assumption. For example, Trump holds a negative favorable gap vs Clinton among Republicans. This might traditionally signal a depressed turnout (hence the D skew.) This is wrong.
Trump is an asshole. Voters will crawl over broken glass to cast a vote in his favor. With Clinton on the other side further pushing for marks in Trump’s column, she is clearly at a disadvantage.
His rallies are massive and he owns social media. His supporters are frequently the kind of people that had permanently left politics. These folk are not counted in the models.
The libtards in NM are immigrants from CA, IL, CT, NY. The others are indigenous old school dummies with conservative values. NM can go Trump.