ok I am paranoid ....
I have been flipping between cnn, fox, Bloomberg and msnbc. They to all degrees are claiming that HC is in the lead ... but folks don’t know the impact of the weekend news.
However, especially cnn (and their all knowing analysts) seem to indicate that DT although narrowing is still behind.
What do these (idiots) know that we don’t?
Nothing - one problem is that they for some reason all like the Real Clear Politics average of polls, which lags the real world - it includes polls from up to two weeks ago and thus doesn’t keep up with what’s going on right now - in addition it gives too much weight to outlier polls which distort how large the differences between the candidates is - so the size of Clinton’s lead was undoubtedly exaggerated by the ABC poll which had her ahead by 14 points last week, and it doesn’t yet reflect that her lead in that same poll is now down to only one point - today the RCP average is down to three, and soon all those commentators are going to have to start admitting that the race is at least even - another thing is that all the networks really want to see Hillary win - so they resist giving any credit to Trump as long as they can, and even hope that the more they say Hillary’s winning the more it will help her cause by energizing her followers and discouraging Trump’s - and all the pollsters seem to be using turnout models from past presidential years when Democrat voters outnumbered Republicans by a few percentage points in the final vote - this year is likely to be quite different though, with Hillary very unlikely to be able to pull as many minorities and young people who turned out to vote for the cult figure Obama, and Trump’s voters much more excited about voting than many Republicans in years past when McCain and Romney were on the ticket - the turnout this year is likely to be of equal percentages of Democrats and Republicans, and thus the models used by the pollsters are overemphasizing the Democrat vote and underestimating the Republican - we’ll see in a week....