The trend is even better than it seems on the surface...the breakdown is D-36\R-29\I-33 based on 783 likely voters, where they polled 282-D’s, 226-R’s & 259-I’s...so, their rolling average is based on a D+7 turnout...so Trump is up by 2 points with this turnout model...
Who knows where the actual turnout will land, but based on all the numbers from the primary season, it’s hard to imagine a turnout that beats Obama’s 12 turnout on the D side and an R turnout that doesn’t beat Romney’s 12 turnout on the R side...
This also doesn’t take into account the Silent\Monster vote that can’t be calculated into any of this. I believe this will happen at some percentage across our nation just like it did in the primaries. Hopefully Sundance is correct with his calculations on the turnout of the Monster vote.
Drudge has this as the lead this morning and the breakdown is there...
TG
ooh I have a question:
How do you determine the D oversamping number ? Where in this data do you locate that ?
Is this one +8 or +7 ?
In other news, IBD has the been the most accurate in Presidential polls over the last 3 elections. They’re doing something right:
http://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-tracking-poll-most-accurate-presidential-poll/