Replies

Something is VERY wrong with thiss poll (besides the party makeup of the sample). The poll claims 42% of 1,032 sampled participants support Clinton. By my math, that’s 433. Keep that number in mind. I tend to believe that number moreso than some of the others since that’s the only number most people will look at.

I looked a bit deeper though. The poll claims that 83% of the Dems surveyed support her. With 434 Dems surveyed that implies 359. She is claimed to be supported by 32% of the 346 Independents, or 111 of them. She is also supported by 8 of the 252 Republicans, or 3%.

The problem is that these numbers just don’t add up right. 359 Dems, 111 Indys and 8 Reps add up to 478 respondants. Comparing that number to the one obtained from the reported support, which was 433 shows a significant discrepancy.

What’s going on here? 478 out of 1,032 is 46%. Why would this poll intentionally understate Hillary’s overall support? Obviously that explanation is hard to believe. The party breakdown shows 45 more votes than the overall. I believe the overall number, otherwise they’d be only too glad to report 46-38 increasing her lead by 4 points.

That means that one or more of the party breakdowns is overstated. It can’t be her Republican support - that was only 8 respondants, not enough to explain the discrepancy. Subtracting these 45 frim her Dem supporters puts her support at 72% among Dems. That would be low, but not so low that they’d be tempted to alter the report to cover it up. Subtracting from the Indys though puts her at 19%. That’s an embarrassingly low number that she would not want to see put out there.

I don’t normally do conspiracy theories, but math doesn’t lie. The numbers in this poll just are not consistent with each other and the low support among Independents might just be embarrassing enough for this poll to change a figure that most people would not even think to question.