Posted on 10/16/2016 10:09:12 AM PDT by GilGil
Well, I am not seeing ads for anybody...but I don't watch tv much and I live in California. So I will have to rely on others to know if he is getting the message out that way.
I’ll bet Trump is at least +7 nationwide. Possibly a landslide in november.
If they’ll fabricate stories about Trump and get their talking points from the Hillary Campaign, they’ll have no problem throwing out fake polling numbers.
That being said, I always act on these numbers as if they’re real. Just makes us work harder for a Hillary defeat even is there’s a possibility that those polls are wrong. That way, the worst that can happen is an even bigger landslide.
RCP is an average of all the polling data. But how accurate can RCP be if the polling data they pull from is fabricated to make Hillary look good?
Perhaps...but self-admitted conservatives have outnumbered self-admitted liberals over the last two decades by a 2-1 margin.
Here is some information.
Pew has sampled D/R from January to August this year. The result is D+4. They ask how are you registered, and if the person is from a state that doesn’t do party registration, they ask with whom are you most aligned in preference.
The D/R mix in 2012, of registered voters, was D+9. That was also from sampling, because some states don’t register by party (Georgia and Tennessee are two).
Someone up above in the thread said the D+11 poll results are coming from the preference for Hillary. This is not and cannot be true. People are registered how they are registered. Their preference or aversion to Hillary doesn’t change the party registration.
Again, the fundamental question is how does a D+11 result occur in sampling? Is it screened, or is that the sample result. For either answer, note that 2012 official registration of D+9. A pollster aiming at that is not cheating. It’s a legitimate target — the last presidential election year sample result. It is no longer true, but it’s a legitimate target.
Bill Clinton’s a Rapist!
Hillary’s a Child Molestor!
Registration differences are about 28 R to 32 D. So this is about A 15% oversampling...
You’re really gonna hang your hat on a 1% difference? Registered is 3% difference (you posted it was 8%, you were wrong),I read that Likely VOTERS is 2%, and pick a fight over something so petty? Damn.. don’t have time for petty crap like this
The NBC/WSJ Poll is Dem. +9. Add Strong and Not Very strong for each Party and you get 35% Dem and 26% GOP. The Independents,whether Dem. or Republican, are strictly Independent and the percentages reflect how they plan to vote. This poll,like the FOX poll from a few days ago, is seriously juiced toward the Democrats.
You can call it D+5 but in terms of statistics it is almost meaningless.
Two polls: Set 1: D 45 and R 40, Set 2: D 35 R 30
Both samples are D +5, right?
But Set 1 contains 12.5% more Ds, while Set 2 contains 16.6% more.
The tricks of pollsters and statisticians are almost limitless when you start weighting and moving around demos (age, women, race, education).
There was an old saying back in the days where businesses were run through Excel and Lotus . He who owns the spreadsheet wins.
Same applies now.
did any light bulb go off when you read this post? Anything at all?
None, cause I’m a stats expert.. I know what he’s saying but it’s stil misrepresenting the issue
When you folks want to say the 2012 election had 19% more Dems voting than Republicans, then you can scream that this poll has the same 19% more Dems than Repubs.. apples to apples or don’t bother at all.
To me, the more relevant number is D+7.
I don’t recall anyone saying that in 2012 there were 19% more Dems voting than Repubs.. technically it was true, but everyone I know used the D+6 figure
Use whatever makes you feel good.. he’ll point to the biggest outlier you see and take comfort in in... as Rush says, I live in Realville. I’d like to think many others here do too
Please see post 111 in response to your post
You would’ve see many ads, as I would in CT or NY, but PA???
NBC couldn’t produce an honest, unbiased poll if it had a gun to its head. This poll contradicts other polls out there right now. Even the Wash Post/ABC is resigned that the race is even, which means Trump is ahead. I think the LA Times poll is the most accurate. Still Trump needs to get ahead by at least a few more points.
OMG, you lied again! It was D+4 in 2012:
http://www.fec.gov/pubrec/fe2012/federalelections2012.pdf
actually, a little less than +4. A stats expert living in Realville ought to know that.
Why is Non Contributor, Newbie, obviously Troll, Debbie Downer Liar, allowed to needlessly post crap? You know who you are...
65,915,795 D
51.06%
60,933,504 R
47.20%
19 percent more Democrats, huh? Not “technically true”.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.