just out of curiosity, what should the correct percentage of D’s and R’s be? i think 2012, D’s were 6% over R’s. So it would seem that a cautious pollster would use that spread (but we can likely assume that R’s will close that gap a bit this time). In any event, what’s the right percentage?
+4 d nationally at most, but that’s high based on 2016 primary petcentages.
On states like FL we are seeing R advantages, while other places have had massive D losses in voter registration.
So i think except in obviouly blue states like NY, MN, a +1-2D is as far as you should go.