thank you, as always
Large pop states like CA, NY tend to skew national polls D. Exclude those, and exclude the obviously red deep south/north Plains and the obviously blue NE far NW, and your “battleground areas” run from +2-3 R to about +6-7 D, but the Ds in those states are more flexible-—working class, blue collar, farmers, etc. Not hard core welfare recipients.
Gallup said in 2012 that exits showed we were 50/50. I don’t think that’s right, certainly not on a national level, but in MOST battleground states D+1 or 2 is about right.