Flickering of the solar output on a time scale of millennia is the zillion ton elephant in the room.
If anything, patterns of past temperature fluctuations suggest another cold plunge is coming up, which was why the earlier concern about a global freeze.
IF this can be moderated by means of something that can be done to the atmosphere, then in fact that kind of global warming at this time in history would be a good thing, not a bad one.
I suppose it’s a “real effect” like a fart in a hurricane is real.
Already happening....the Sun's magnetic field is in decline...
so less sunspots
Expect the next ice age to commence about the time of a Pence first term after 8 of Trump.