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Nate Silver: Trump surges from 3% to 48% chance of winning
The Washington Examiner ^ | September 21st, 2016 | By Paul Bedard

Posted on 09/21/2016 5:58:08 AM PDT by Mariner

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To: Daffynition

Sabato is wrong.

CO and NM will go Trump.


21 posted on 09/21/2016 6:24:52 AM PDT by Disestablishmentarian
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To: BlueStateRightist

Actually all he needs to do is look reasonable and he wins.

No one is watching to see Hillary other than those who are already going to vote for her.

Everyone else is watching to see Trump, either because they already have decided to support him or are deciding whether they will or not.

Anyone other than a first time voter has already committed to Hillary if they are going to, nothing she does or says will get her one more vote.

The rest who aren’t already committed to Trump or Hillary are tuning in to see if Trump is the racist monster that the dems and the MSM have told them he is, or if he is a reasonable person.

If they decide he is reasonable they will vote for him, if they decide he isn’t they will stay home or vote 3rd party. None of them will decide to vote for Hillary.

Hillary could win the debate on points, do everything right, and she still won’t win as long as Trump looks reasonable.


22 posted on 09/21/2016 6:26:14 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: Daffynition

Larry Sabato just updated his map

in Silver’s default projection (current polling) the weakest blue state is NH; Trump would be smart to pool massive resources there like yesterday...without NH Hilary clinton cannot get to 272 and the tossups have value; however if she wins it, the remaining 51 votes don’t matter at all...

who’d have thought 4 EV’s could matter so much...


23 posted on 09/21/2016 6:30:44 AM PDT by IrishBrigade
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To: Daffynition

Sorry, but Florida is no toss-up. Florida is Trump Country!


24 posted on 09/21/2016 6:31:31 AM PDT by Mollypitcher1 (I have not yet begun to fight....John Paul Jones)
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To: Disestablishmentarian

CO and NM will go Trump.

CO. could happen; problematic but possible...

NM, no chance...


25 posted on 09/21/2016 6:34:33 AM PDT by IrishBrigade
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To: IrishBrigade

Trump knows it. He recently told a NH audience that they could put him over


26 posted on 09/21/2016 6:35:00 AM PDT by Mjreagan
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To: IrishBrigade

I am surprised the polls show Trump consistently and solidly behind in PA, but yet ahead in Ohio, Iowa and Florida.


27 posted on 09/21/2016 6:35:18 AM PDT by nwrep
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To: HamiltonJay

Agree. Like JFK/Nixon. Radio listeners thought Nixon won. TV watchers thought JFK won.

Trump needs to look/act presidential even if he doesn’t match nitpicks with PIAPS.

Besides the larger issues are Trump’s (terrorism, immigration, trade, jobs, defense, judges)


28 posted on 09/21/2016 6:36:45 AM PDT by HombreSecreto (The life of a repo man is always intense)
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To: Disestablishmentarian

If NM goes Trump, I’ll take all my lib relatives out to a HUGE meal! Of course I’ll forget my wallet!


29 posted on 09/21/2016 6:38:39 AM PDT by refermech
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To: Daffynition

Every one of his “toss ups” is aleady Trumps.... his map is behind the times.

By end of next week if not before CO, NH will be as well at the least... with PA, WI and MI falling as well...

VA is still a pocketbook issue, NOVA folks voting to protect their meal tickets in DC may keep it Dem... but I am not sure that it won’t fall too...


30 posted on 09/21/2016 6:52:35 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: Mariner

3 percent a month ago was laughable.

48 percent at present still isn’t accurate, but a move in the right direction.

Wonder how long it’ll take him to put Trump above 50 percent? Maybe on Nov. 7th he’ll give in, Lol.


31 posted on 09/21/2016 6:55:30 AM PDT by simpson96
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To: NYC-RepublicanCT
Nebraska 2 a tossup? NV a tossup? NC a tossup? CO NOT a tossup? He’s still painfully biased towards the sickly one.

Yes he is. A least a bit so.

Sabato predicted on Fox News that the Hillary Collapse on 9/11 would have no effect on the election. Seemed like a stupid thing to say at the time and even more so now.

32 posted on 09/21/2016 7:07:51 AM PDT by InterceptPoint (Ted, you should have endorsed. Big mistake.)
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To: IrishBrigade

Isn’t Trump winning in New Mexico. Reuters/Ipsos New Mexico poll released Saturday Trump up by 5


33 posted on 09/21/2016 7:13:19 AM PDT by NathanBroom
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To: InterceptPoint

The 9/11 event will be the gift that keeps giving... Any non leftist robot seeing that scene will be reminded, over and over, how weak a candidate she is. Symbolically and literally.


34 posted on 09/21/2016 7:23:00 AM PDT by NYC-RepublicanCT (Trump vs Media/Dems/Obamas/NeverTrumpers. Still winning!!!)
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To: NathanBroom

I’d be a little cautious of that NM poll... It sampled 143 people, over 8 days, all of it prior to 9/11. Trump COULD very well be ahead, but that sample size is way too small, IMHO


35 posted on 09/21/2016 7:25:00 AM PDT by NYC-RepublicanCT (Trump vs Media/Dems/Obamas/NeverTrumpers. Still winning!!!)
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To: simpson96

All it will take is to have NH, Colorado, or Maine to go in Trump’s favor, in HIS polling averages, for the overall to move past 50% in Trump’s favor. He’s one state away


36 posted on 09/21/2016 7:26:11 AM PDT by NYC-RepublicanCT (Trump vs Media/Dems/Obamas/NeverTrumpers. Still winning!!!)
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To: NYC-RepublicanCT

Sweet! :-D


37 posted on 09/21/2016 7:28:40 AM PDT by simpson96
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To: simpson96
I don't give Nate Silver that much credibility. He was good in '12, but hasn't done much since. He has been awful in his projections on Trump throughout the primary... His polls are often lagging...

but.. the left treats him like a God. Would be GREAT to have Trump go over 50% and see liberal heads explore all over the place

38 posted on 09/21/2016 7:43:25 AM PDT by NYC-RepublicanCT (Trump vs Media/Dems/Obamas/NeverTrumpers. Still winning!!!)
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To: NYC-RepublicanCT

I agree.

After these past eight years...I want a SMACKDOWN!


39 posted on 09/21/2016 7:44:48 AM PDT by simpson96
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To: Mariner

The day after election day, Nate will have Trump at 100%, thereby proving once again that Nate is a master election prognosticator, the best in the biz.


40 posted on 09/21/2016 8:09:39 AM PDT by catnipman (Cat Nipman: Vote Republican in 2012 and only be called racist one more time!)
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