By guess at this point is 3%. Of the remaining 4%, 2% will vote for Trump and 2% will be too stoned to find the polls.
Every election cycle pollsters fellate themselves over third party (I contend fringe) candidates like Anderson, Nader, etc. They never get over a point or 2. Gary Johnson will not get 7%, just won’t happen. Pollsters is a profession that is last bastion of kids who got a 1.8 GPA in college Mathematics, that hard work was done in between binge drinking and growing chin pubes. throw Meteorology in there(Check it out, most Meteorologists, were bottom 50% in college) A profession of failures in college like journalists and dumb girls who graduate with elementary education degrees, you basically show up and you get a degree. You have the 4.0 Beautiful Mind Asberger imbiciles(Facebook founder example) or the C- sluts running the country right now.
Support for Johnson has ebbed and flowed. It rose from 7 to 9 points (based on my really, really huge tracking poll) while Trump was securing the nomination. It has now fallen back to 8 points. Perhaps this particular survey’s figure of 7 will prove more current.
Tracking support for Libertarian candidates in Governor and Senator races in 2014, I saw a pattern of this support falling about in half as the election moved from mid summer to the time to get real. This explains part of the polling disaster of 2014.
If the polls show Trump to be ahead by 2 points at this time, I figure there’s a good chance he will win by 10 points because undecideds will break to him and because of the peel-off vote from Gary Johnson. In other words, this election will be like 1980.