Posted on 09/07/2016 7:21:22 AM PDT by Redmen4ever
If the 2016 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, Donald Trump, the Republican, Gary Johnson, the Libertarian, and Jill Stein, from the Green Party, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton: 40% (-2) Donald Trump: 38% (+1) Gary Johnson: 7% (0) Jill Stein: 5% (+2)
(Excerpt) Read more at today.yougov.com ...
The Donald closes 3 points in one week, from trailing to 5 to trailing by 2.
Hillary polling at 40%?
Stick a fork in her - she’s done - she’ll get far less than that.
Looks like this poll is heavily D+ oversampled so it looks even better for Trump.
RCP average down to 3.3 before adding this poll.With a bunch that haven’t been updated since last month
+11% dem oversample
They had to adjust the party ID so they could claim Hillary still tops Trump.
Takeaway though is she won’t win if she is polling around 40%.
Maybe in some alternative universe. Not in ours.
As I suspected - this poll is nowhere close to reality on anything but the fact Hillary is in the basement.
On that its dead-on accurate.
Where do you find that?
Bigtime oversampling of Dems plus this is ‘registered’ voters.
Registered voter polls typically favor Democrats.
They’re the lazy man’s polling and are notoriously inaccurate.
Likely voter polls have Trump ahead.
Like I said, despite the ludicrous oversampling, Hillary is still at 40%.
You can only imagine her actual number with a more realistic party ID split.
No way Gary Johnson is even getting close to 7%, or Stein 5%. I would count the Steins for Hillary and the Johnsons for Trump.
Did you see this? Texas 32d District: “Out of 80,000 votes, 26,132 never had voted in a primary,”
If the situation were reversed, the MSM would describe the race tied, i.e., within the margin of error. The margin of error is 4.7%.
We participate in the YouGov polls twice a week. Have not been asked to participate in any of those that have political questions for at least the last six weeks. Basis the comments on their home page and the topics their participants discuss your opinion of oversampling of Dems is spot on.
If you go to the poll and then to this link and look at page 9 you will see numbers by party id
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/j94gut74gx/trackingreport.pdf
In past elections, I have assumed half the libertarian vote shifts to the Republican. I would make the same assumption regarding the Green. This year, Gary Johnson is playing the role John Anderson did in 1980. Anderson’s support collapsed during October. As long as Trump continues with his current style of campaigning, many of the anti-Trumps will come home.
Thanks!
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