Hillary has about ten or twelve safe states.
Trump is running a national campaign. She isn’t.
It wouldn’t be a surprise to see her underperform the 42-43% she’s been getting in various national polls.
For most losing Democrats, that’s the exact vote share they have gotten in every presidential election since 1968.
Hillary looks to get way less than losing generic Democrats do.
Its a humiliation for her and you wonder why she’s staying on when she is clearly phoning it in.
I have said all along as well I think Hillary has a max, best case number of low 40s (42-43)%. That’s her best case for Nov. in my opinion.
I have also stated that I too believe her best case scenario was maybe 15 states with about 180ec votes... And a real possibility of maybe 10 states and 100-120ec votes
She’s phoning it in (or has been to this point) because well she’s Hillary. The more she’s seen the less she’s likes and the lower she polls. The polls have been showing for last month or so that she’s safe Trump was stuck in the 30s... But the polls have been wrong and off... The 2012 modeling is complete garbage and Trump has in my estimation between 4 and 7% more support (between reverse Bradley effect and attracting disenfranchised voters who most pollsters filter out as unlikely to vote) than even these improper modeled polls are showing.
She’s been trying a run out the clock campaign combined with trying to paint Trump as too crazy or dangerous because she can’t motivate people to vote for her... Only against Trump. This was only strategy she had from day one and I just don’t see it working.
When this thing breaks, and it will break, it is going to break heavily toward Trump... Hillary is a known quantity, unless this is your first election if you were going to support her you already would be.
Trump has been up 10-20 points with independents and always has been, in nearly every poll. Hillary has been tracking about average among D’s for a generic D while Trump has been tracking below average among R for an averag R.. This and bad modeling are the only 2 reasons this has appeared to be a race,
Thing for Hillary is she is now starting to lose her base, she is starting, in most recent polls to track below the typical D candidate almong D’s. Basically showing that even among D supporters there are those who have seen enough with the leaks and scandals that they won’t vote for her. This is a death knell for her. Add in the fact she has zero enthusiasm as well and it’s hard to see any way she gets anything near a win.
Meanwhile Trump on the other hand has huge enthusiasm, you know his supporters are showing up. You also know that odds are pretty high that the lower support by Rs will close by Election Day. He may not get all of them to support him, but most will come home.
It is also a relatively save bet that Trump will get more votes from D than most R do as he is aiming squarely at the blue collar and union worker that have been displaced by free trade. It may not be a massive percentage but it will be relevant. Most polling shows about 10% of D voters will not say who the will vote for.. My bet is Trump will get most of them. Also 17% of R voters won’t tell pollsters who they plan to vote for.. My bet is most of them will be Trump as well.
This basically leaves fraud as the last hope for the D. My bet is OH will be where most of it will happen since the machinations put in place and fraud there in 12 are still there. Philly region will have its typical levels as well.. But I do not think the Pilly levels will keep PA in the D column. I also feel OH probably won’t either as Trump will have more than enough support to overcome it. But if I am wrong and this becomes a thread the needle election I would not want to see a situation where OH is a must win because we know the level of fraud there can and has been massive in the past.
The debates are the next major event, and assuming Trump comes out of them looking reasonable, you will see the slow trending now toward Trump become a waterfall.