Elections are won by the campaigns that do a better job with thier Get Out the Vote effort and Bossie is an expert at building a voter turnout model.
The model he builds using not only data that the Trump campaign has collected, but he may also be able to access Get Out the Vote data that the Romney campaign used in 2012 as well as the Get Out the Vote data that then McCain team built in 2008.
You’re right in your analysis. I’d add a ground game and GOTV strategy is only as successful as a candidates volunteers make it. One of Trump’s major assets are his supporters. 14 million primary voters. About 1.1 million in Florida. 900000 in Pennsylvania, 700000 in Ohio. Hopefully by next weekend all Trump’s campaign offices are overflowing with folks who want to make calls and knock on doors.