What is voter registration in NC?
I’m not sure what it was in 2012, but 2012 really wouldn’t be a good comparison and W+10 just seems a little too high. No idea on actual makeup of NC makeup looks like.
The only thing I’ve been able to reference outside of past elections, would be Gallup tracking, which shows Conservative/liberal trends by state.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/188969/red-states-outnumber-blue-first-time-gallup-tracking.aspx