You can clearly see that for the entire race Hillary has been stuck at 41 and Trump at 38, except right around the conventions where the numbers moved a bit in each’s direction until reverting right back to where they were before.
Yes, anyone can pick apart an individual poll.
But the BIG picture shows Clinton with a consistent 3 point lead or so.
So if Clinton is leading Trump consistently by 3 or so, why am I so confident Trump will win?
Because 41+38= 79
There is a missing 21 !!!!
Does ANYONE really believe that the two 3rd party candidates are going to get a combined 21% ? 15% ? 10%? heck! they'd be lucky to get 5% on a good day COMBINED.
So... lets just for the sake of argument give the two 3rd party candidates 5% combined.
That leaves a missing 16%.
Does anyone believe that there is ANYONE in the world that is “undecided” about Hillary Clinton? Because I sure as heck don't !
Which means that 16% are either:
1. undecided about TRUMP
2. are for Trump but wont admit it to a pollster (or anyone else for that matter)
I believe the Trump is a mixture of both 1 and 2.
And like you I believe that those who are currently undecided about Trump will ultimately decide after the debates in October.
After the debates one of three things will happen:
Hillary's numbers will move up into the high 40’s consistently - this will indicate a close race and probable Hillary win.
Hillary's numbers will move up into the low 50’s consistently - this will indicate a blowout for Hillary.
or Trumps numbers will move up into the mid to high 40’s - this will indicate a Trump blowout. Because Trump will NEVER poll above 50% consistently because of the fear of those being polled of being judged negatively which I believe is skewing the polls 3-5 points.
Every one of those scenarios is valid.
We live in a liberal culture and that favors Hillary as reflected in the polls.
Maybe some major event or a strong Trump showing in the debates will move the numbers his way.
Right now everything tells us Hillary is our next Prez.
Sure you don’t like the polls and none of us do but that is where things stand at the moment.