Sabato is a longtime Democrat operative. I think he had Carter beating Reagan.
The Carter / Reagan race had Carter ahead by nearly 20 points until October, when the media claimed it was Carter ahead by 9.
The eve of the election, the media proclaimed the race was “too close to call.”
I lived in Southern California back then, and on election day, November 1980, the networks called the race for Reagan at 3:00 PM Pacific time, before my family even went to the polls, which we shortly did with big smiles on our faces.