You are a political junkie like me. I get it. But you are way over analyzing. 99% of the electorate cares not a whit about the Veep pick.
I don’t think that’s necessarily always the case...for example I think Cheney and Palin had more of an impact than that...Cheney for his crushing debate performances and Palin for her convention speech.
But this year, your number is probably correct. It’s two very big personalities at the top of each ticket and their VP picks will be nonfactors.