How many “undecideds” are really pro Trump, but don’t want to tell strangers that?
My guess is more than a few.
I don’t know. There was definitely a reverse Bradley effect in the Republican Primary, but it was for Cruz, not Trump.
I went through the final RCP numbers and compared them to the actual percent of votes in each contest for Trump, and the numbers were shockingly accurate.
On average, Trump performed within 2 points (1.86 to be precise) of the RCP average across the race from Iowa all the way through Indiana. It was astonishing how close to the polls Trump performed. Mind-blowing, really. There were 19 races that had enough polls for RCP to put up an average, and in four of those races, Trump ended up within 1 point of the average. He only performed outside of a 5 point spread in 4 of those races, and the final three of that group were in Arizona, New York, and Indiana as the mantle of inevitability was descending upon his shoulders. If I were to take out those three, the point spread between the RCP average and the actual results would drop to an astonishing 0.45 point spread.
The polls when it comes to Trump are amazingly accurate.
With that in mind, I think there are many people who are undecided who will go for Trump, but I think we must realize that there are people who really don’t know who to vote for and unless we convince them to vote for Trump, they will just stay home. Stopping Hillary is not reason enough for most of those people to vote; he has to give them a reason to vote FOR him.