I have to disagree. It seems that the populations of conservatives and liberals are now self segregating, so if you support Trump pretty much all you know are trump supporters, if you are liberal the same is true the other way. As such our local observations of support do not really reflect the larger state picture, as they are self selected populations.
Parsing the polls, voter affiliation lists by state seem to shows that if Trump can win with 51.5/48.5 he is doing great. Really he has an uphill battle, though the winds are at his back. In the 17 states he is focusing on he has issues in each and every one.
it is possible that this will be a realignment election, where the part lines are remade, but if that were going to be I would have assumed that the indications were apparent already. I suppose we will have to wait until labor day, that is when traditionally the polls start to reflect reality.
Personally I think this is an election where there is a clear choice, the electorate can make a real choice on the issues that matter. If Hillary gets elected it means there is no coming back for the US, simply because the electorate has gone off the deep end. But liberals see it the opposite and are doing every thing they can to pull out a victory. They know as well as the right if they can pull it off, even by voter fraud they will be able to continue policies and supreme court picks that will make the next election more or less superfluous.
Your explanation is too hermetic. Too smug.
It is a lot more fluid then that.
Trump will no doubt do a lot better than your numbers.