Posted on 07/14/2016 3:24:09 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued
Nate Cohn, The Upshot’s elections analyst, based in Washington, and Toni Monkovic, an Upshot editor in New York, discussed a big day of polling results, posting a lightly edited transcript of their written exchange.
Toni After a quiet period, the polls poured in over 24 hours. What are the big takeaways?
Nate I think the quick ones are that Hillary Clinton’s standing has deteriorated a bit since last month, but that she still has an advantage.
Toni Let’s start by looking at the bad news for her. The first polls of the day, from Quinnipiac, probably panicked a lot of Democrats.
FLORIDA: Trump 42, Clinton 39
PENNSYLVANIA: Trump 43, Clinton 41
OHIO: Clinton 41, Trump 41
Nate Yeah, the Quinnipiac polls aren’t great for Clinton. Quinnipiac polling has generally tilted toward the G.O.P. all year, so it’s reasonable to suppose that Clinton’s standing in those states would be a bit better in other polls. But they’re still consistent with a narrower race than the one suggested by most polls over the last month.
The NBC/WSJ/Marist polls were in that category as well. Their top-line numbers were better for Clinton than the Quinnipiac surveys, but they were still weaker for Clinton than their past surveys.
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
Sander voters aren’t voting for her.
Certainly is a factor, but is there any data to show this? I am now hearing that 'Berners' were looking at the Green Party or even Gary "Pot Head" Johnson.
Many are younger voters who are simply going to stay home on election day.
Sorry it’s not that close folks. between Bradley effect and trump attracting disenfranchised voters he’s easily 3-5 point higher than most polls are going to indicate.
Hillary is done. Post convention bounce is all she’s got to look forward to. Her trajectory has been and will be down the entire cycle.
She’s heading toward a drubbing. One that may end up rivalry Carter in 1984.
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