I have no doubt Clinton is ahead at this point. Not the 10-12% but in the 4-6% range. They are closer in the states that matter, but Trump has to define Clinton the way he defined the field in the primaries to pull this out. He’s got all the opportunity to win, but he hasn’t won it yet.
I just caution people about building a false narrative like we did in 2012. Polls that showed obama ahead were routinely dismissed as being biased, and polls with Romney ahead were used as proof that the other polls were biased.
Trump is the superior candidate in this race and he's a real street fighter when he has to be. But most importantly, he's absolutely fearless and willing to take on the Clintons. There's no one else in he GOP about whom that can be said.