Interesting, didn’t know that, and that explains the sudden swing.
Perhaps the European leaders are getting a little nervous?
After all European history shows us when this happens it’s not a good thing for their leaders.
There were several college professors (UK-type) who did the analysis on Friday and said that the exit-treaty deal with the EU would take a minimum of 12 months. First, you have to write the wording. Then it has to pass the Parliament of the UK. Then it has to pass the majority of the 751 members of the EU. Then it has to go before and pass at least 20 of the 27 member states of the EU. You can go and do the math to this but unless someone writes some really friendly deal and allows them the outsider status of Norway (they also aren’t a member of the EU)....that’s about the only way to hustle this up and get it done in four months. But then, the Norway-deal wouldn’t punish the UK, which is what most of the elite of the EU desire to happen.
I should also note....the Scottish referendum to leave the UK...probably won’t occur before 1 September (it’ll shock me if they can get this up and ready to vote in 30 days). The last time they voted on this....it was 44-percent in favor of leaving. It’s hard to predict this....but they might be able to get around 52-to-55 percent to agree on leaving the UK....thus getting them to the front door of the EU.
But sit and think about this. Scotland doesn’t exactly have it’s own currency, and their economic situation might be a bit shaky on the first year, if the business operations suddenly realize the tax impact upon them in the region. So, why would the EU allow them easily in the front door? I could see a lengthy three year time-period where Scotland is held at the front-door and not allowed to enter the EU.
Toss in Wales and Northern Ireland, along with Gibraltar...maybe even the Falkland Islands, along with London who all may want their own referendum to exit the UK, and then find that getting into the EU isn’t that simple or quick.
Then, let’s add this one little ‘Monty Python-factor’....what if two districts that make up Scotland...vote ‘stay in the UK’, and they get angry and frustrated about being forced to leave the UK....so they demand a referendum to separate their district from Scotland and be an enclave of the UK....on the far north coast? Or perhaps five neighborhoods of London want a referendum to exit the London-City-state, and be part of the UK?
In essence, this referendum deal has opened the Pandora of all Pandoras Boxes. In twelve months, you could have 20 kingdoms, enclaves, city-states, empires, or countries existing in what was the UK....and it would spread across Europe within three quick years.
Pull up a map of Europe in 1800. Note over 300 separate states, kingdoms, empires, countries, city-states. This election brings us full-circle....if the act of a referendum is allowed to continue on and on and on.