Posted on 06/14/2016 8:48:51 AM PDT by dennisw
“For our Brit readers: is this whole Brexit debate as much of a Kabuki play as it seems to me? You just know that, no matter what the voters say, the eurocrats aren’t going to let the U.K. leave. There will either be out and out fraud in the election, or if they can’t get away with that they will find some reason or another to ignore a leave vote. Am I wrong about this?”
That is my take too.
Electoral fraud is somewhat more difficult to accomplish in the UK (or for that matter, quite a few other countries) than the US. Its possible -Cameron’s party is under investigation for cheating in 2015. But it looks like the margin for exit will be too big.
However, the referendum is only advisory! All the relevant legislation, including dealing with forty years of Brussels-made law inflicted on/ accepted by the British, has to go through Parliament in Westminster. Most current MPs are pro-EU. There is already talk about sabotaging any legislation to get the UK to actually leave that is introduced by the government, which wants to stay in anyway. This is why if “leave” wins the vote, they have to make sure Cameron is replaced with someone who at least has publically committed to leaving.
(one irony of this is that Johnson is campaigning to leave but probably really wants to stay in, while the Labour leader, Corbyn, is pro-Remain in public but its pretty obvious he is more sympathetic to the “leave” side)
So my guess is that “Leave” will be allowed to win, but the relevant laws to make that happen won’t get through Parliament for one reason or another. Also keep in mind that one of the houses of Parliament isn’t even elected. Of course this will be a gift to the UKIP candidates running in 2020.
There’s no way they wouldn’t let it happen. There would be uproar like never seen. We don’t do that sort of thing over here, IF leave wins - we will be leaving one way or another.
Boris Johnson will become PM sooner rather than later.
Sounds like a preview of the U.S. elections this November...
The fact that it’s neither automatic nor instantaneous, even if Leave gets 51% of the vote, is actually good for the Leave side.
It means you can vote Leave as a protest, but without worrying too much that you’re making a horrible irreversible mistake. It will still be incremental change and will take years to effect.
Isn’t Brussels the real muscle in the EU?
The only thing the people of the UK will be leaving is their sovereignty.
I think Brexit is a dumb euphemism for this.
Why not just say what it is?
i don’t know they started calling the Greek exit GRexit, so I guess it’s like “watergate” everything will be styled like that from now on. Oh, and the Greeks voted for Grexit and EU said ‘no’.
I figure even ‘leave’ doesn’t accomplish much for several years. The tipping point will be when Muslims control parliament. They are not going to like those pesky EU rules that allow non-muslims to just move to Londonistan whenever they want.
Written from a British point of view... A leave victory would have ramifications all over Europe from the discontented masses. Are bureaucrats from every country going to foil all those people? I don’t think so. Austria is already defying immigration orders.
One opinion I read stated that Brits would prefer a Norway-style EU relationship. Can you briefly describe that for me?
Thursday 23rd June will be Independence Day.
Or Fried Breakfast eating Surrender Monkey Day.....
re: The Norway Solution
Thank you. Very complicated. Current relationship seems to be based on trade (with Schengen) which I think was the original basic of the EU. But I was impressed with the overwhelming vote AGAINST EU membership by Norwegians consistently over 15 or so years.
They seem to be protecting their sovereignty while parliament still voting for approval of 90% of EU laws!
One tidbit that I’ll look into is the “party suicide pact” to avoid even a discussion about EU. Gotta be something interesting going on with that creation.
Yes, trade was the basis for the UK joining the Common Market in 1972, and the 1975 referendum (the first national one in the UK) simply asked this -
Do you think that the United Kingdom should stay in the European Community (the Common Market)?
The EU as a political center all grew after the UK had a real vote on the subject. Everyone is for more trade, but no-one was asked if they wanted less sovereignty. It just sort of happened after pro-Europe representatives were elected to Brussels and they simply gave themselves more power.
Your pessimism about electoral fraud is, I think, misplaced. It’s a very long time since there was any significant fraud in a UK election, although there have been some (relatively minor) abuses with the growth in postal voting. The very local and public counting system makes it very difficult. It’s also untrue, by the way, that ‘Cameron’s party is under investigation for cheating’. The only investigation I’m aware of is a rather technical issue about the attribution of electoral expenses to the national rather than the local party.
As for ‘it won’t be allowed to happen...’ it needs to be remembered that the ONLY reason this referendum is happening is not to do with irresistible public demand (the EU always polled rather low on the list of public concerns) but with internal differences within the Conservative party. The Tory Eurosceptics would never have allowed Cameron to remain leader if he hadn’t included the referendum promise in his election manifesto. For the same reason, there’s no way Cameron’s government will survive if he fails to see through the referendum outcome. The entire referendum campaign has been a blue-on-blue fight, with an extraordinary degree of mutual public venom from the two Tory factions. The Labour Party (and for that matter UKIP) have been scarcely visible.
And the idea that the EU itself will somehow prevent Brexit is fanciful - the power of the EU to enforce anything on its member states is actually very limited.
“The Labour Party (and for that matter UKIP) have been scarcely visible.”
Hadn’t noticed that ,but you’re right.
Nothing like watching a Bun fight in an opposition party’s camp. :)
Speaking of which Yes Priminister is on.... :)
You’re welcome.
Complicated....You want to be sat this close to the mess, it’s indecipherable.
:)
If the Brits stay in the Eurozone they will just ignore the part they don’t like about it.
If they leave the Eurozone they will keep the parts they like about it.
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