John Chambers former CEO and still Chairman of the Board of Cisco, said Trump will win because all the momentum is his.
Chambers is a Republican, but he has a point. We know that the Dem primary turnout is down a lot, could be just that she is not Obama, but it could be that people are tired of Obama policies and Hillary backs them.
But the GOP turnout is up 60 percent. Lots of energy there. Trump has won 40 percent of a much larger pool of voters than Romney who got 34 percent of GOP primary votes, and that was 60 percent lower in aggregate. So vote wise Romney proportion is millions less votes than Trump.
Trump won Evangelical voters even beating Cruz out by a fair margin.
If Evangelicals who wouldn’t vote for Mormon Romney flex their muscles this is tied to start with.
If Trump takes 5% more AA vote than Romney several states are easier to win. If its 15% black vote for Trump and fewer blacks voting Dem because they did worse under Obama than Bush, then its a + for Trump.
In Nevada American Hispanics voted 46% for Trump, so its possible that they could split pretty evenly for Trump on his economic message being better than Hillary.
Indies love Trump.
Only the Womens vote is worth watching, if Trump pulls close with women Clinton is toast.
Voters (I won’t say Republicans because Independents and Reagan Democrats are involved) are absolutely energized this election cycle which matches, or exceeds, the enthusiasm on the left in ‘08 and ‘12.
That said, Trump needs to deliver on his promises or he’s out in 4 years.
Here are my hot buttons:
1) Take care of vets
2) Halt the muzzie invasion until they can be properly vetted.
3) Build the wall.
Everything else, in my opinion, can be negotiated.
YMMV