[justlurking]

Probably the more important thing is to look at the trend from now to November. We should expect that democrat advantage to gradually disappear.

No, I expect polls to continue to oversample Democrats. A random phone poll will always do that. Some pollsters will adjust the results, but others won't.

Obama did better. He beat Romney in the ground game. Polls are one thing, but your voters have to get to the polls.

Yes, Obama did very well: he had a higher voter turnout in some districts than there were known to be voting-age adults.

[Dave W]

Yes, what you wrote is true. However, I was referring to the logistics of the two campaigns. In Virginia, Obama opened scores of offices to micromanage turnout, which is why Obama spent 1.5+ billion in the general election, but it worked. Romney opened about a dozen offices in Virginia and stated he wasn't worried because he was more efficient. Well, Obama knew that he could not win some areas of Virginia but if he cut into Romney's percent in Appalachia then he would have a better chance statewide. Obama was correct.

The same in Florida. He opened over 100 offices in Florida, many in the panhandle which is heavily republican. Obama knew he couldn't win the panhandle, but if he lost by 20% instead of 22%, he could win the state. He was correct. I think Obama won Florida by 70,000 votes out of 8 million or so. If 35,000 voters flip, Romney would have won Florida. Obama was much more strategic than Romney. He paid for it, too. We all paid for it.