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There were more democrats than republicans voting in 2012 - that is why Obama won, Sherlock.

Look, if you will check your attitude at the door, we can have a civil discussion. Otherwise, you can go pound sand.

I followed up with a posting that cited the 2012 results. It was nearly identical to 2008. Neither was D+8, despite your own admission that Republican vote was depressed. That's why a D+8 sample for this election is not reasonable -- something like 2000 is more representative, with a Republican challenger after 2 years of a divisive Democrat President and the Democrat candidate considered a heir apparent. That was D+3.

In fact, the percent of republican representatives in the House exceeded their vote by a fairly wide margin, which is why the democrats complained about republican gerrymandering, again.

Back in the 80's, it was the opposite: Democrats had more House seats than the vote distribution, and for the same reason: gerrymandering.

Republicans started a concerted effort to take control of state legislatures, and it has paid off. In the past 8 years of Obama, it's actually gotten worse for the Democrats.

It will continue until the Democrats start taking back control of state legislatures. But, that's will be difficult when Democrat control tends to lead to financial mismanagement, followed by tax increases, and people migrate to Republican-held states.

Ok. The fact is neither you nor me will really know what the turnout is until election day. For me, +8 is not unreasonable especially since the pollster takes count of how the actual poll respondents answer.

I doubt it will be +8 on election day since I think the democrats will have a depressed turnout if I believe what I am reading in the paper since many democrats think the superdelegates are stealing the election from Bernie.

Probably the more important thing is to look at the trend from now to November. We should expect that democrat advantage to gradually disappear.

But, I am realistic and well aware of 2012 that Romney had a new data driven get out the vote machine and it didn't work. Romney was so convinced he was going to win that he had no one prepare a concession speech on election night. Obama knew how to get out his supporters. Black vote made up 13% of the vote - a record. The black vote over represented their population for the first time in this country and no republican thought Obama could duplicate the turnout of 2008. Obama did better. He beat Romney in the ground game. Polls are one thing, but your voters have to get to the polls.

I'm a bit concerned that Trump is going to let the republicans worry with the ground game based on his disinterest of that in the primaries. We will see.