Posted on 05/05/2016 12:22:01 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
This has been an exceedingly unpredictable year. Although we remain convinced that Hillary Clinton is very vulnerable and would probably lose to most other Republicans, Donald Trump's historic unpopularity with wide swaths of the electorate - women, millennials, independents and Latinos - make him the initial November underdog.
As a result, we are shifting 13 ratings on our Electoral Vote scorecard, almost all of them favoring Democrats. Our assessments are based on publicly available polling, data on demographic change and private discussions with a large number of pollsters in both parties. Much could change, but undecided voters begin more hostile to Trump than Clinton.
With these changes, 190 Electoral Votes are in the Solid Democratic column, 27 are in Likely Democratic and another 87 are in Lean Democratic - enough for a majority. Yet another 44 Electoral Votes are in Toss Up. Although Iowa, New Hampshire and Ohio could shift to Lean Democratic and Nevada could shift to Likely Democratic, we are holding off on changes in these states until we see more evidence.
Nevada, for example, has proven hostile to Republicans in the last two presidential elections thanks to a rapidly growing non-white electorate. However, some early polling shows Trump performing better with whites there than previous GOP nominees. Still, we are skeptical Trump can ultimately win there.
It’s about 100% that this is all going to be all wrong. This foolish clown(s) thinks Romney and McCain are running again?
Trump wins Florida and Ohio, Nevada, North Carolina, Iowa, and likely wins Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and pushes it in New York.
Trump has the panhandle and upper Florida
Jacksonville close
I-4 usually decides it and Trump and Rubio should win and South Florida is where Rubio can put it over the TOP
based on all this, ... we should get ready for 4 more years of DummyCrap Presidency / DummyShip.
I thought we hated Little Marco.
NOTHING I've seen from The Don makes me think he'd have the slightest interest in a deal like this....
PA resident here.
PA is a toss up now. We have a closed primary. Trump got almost as many votes as Hillary (within 50 thousand). of course Hillary will add a lot of Bernie votes, but most likely not as many as she expects.
Now that Obama is not running, and his last 8 years have been pretty crappy from an economic view I think the Dems will have a lot less enthusiasm, much the like the republicans in 2012
The independents will likely go 3 out of 4 to Trump.
I put it as a toss up only because it depended on what percentage of Kasich/Cruz voters decide to sit it out that will determine if Trump wins or losses in PA.
I think the same applies in Michigan and Ohio, the metric is the same declining industrial states where trump is the only candidate that seems to care.
Yup. Obama beat Romney by 80,000 votes in Florida and 220,000 votes in Miami- Dade. Trump, theoretically, will stuff illegal immigration so Rubios fatal flaw will not come into play. But real politik doesn’t give two craps about feelings, you need votes. And Rubio can cut into the D margins in Dade.
Oh yeah polls have already showed this year Trump has lead over Shillery in Ohio, Florida, and latest North Carolina poll has it tied up 44% against the Shill.
Thanks, wonder what Hillary got. Or maybe it doesn’t matter and we only should examine the overall state totals?
Florida
2,361,805 total R votes.
1,080,000 Trump
638,600 Rubio
1,709,000 total D votes
1,010,000 Hillary
Primaries are different than GE turnout, I think traditionally the GE gets a higher D vote out. Not sure how we can compare. Needs polling.
Right now, I think the 3 key states are Florida, Pennsylvania and Michigan. PA might offset Ohio.
It just seems unfathomable to me that Trump won’t thoroughly schlong Crooked Hillary this November!!!
Trump said the other day 8 years two terms.
I’m not a Trump guy. I didn’t hate any of them. I didn’t vote for Rubio because if the gang of 8 but I like the guy on a personal level and aside from the illegal immigrant thing Rubio is a pretty good conservative with a wide and deep knowledge about the real world. I would have no problem with him as VP even though U voted for Cruz in primary. But my goal is to beat the left, not to destroy every R who is not Donald Trump.
I don’t think that the Democrats are going to survive Trump.
Primary numbers are correlates to GE turnout but not at 1.0 correlation and like you said are different for each party. Trump has to win Florida and will have a tougher time there than in Rust Belr swing states. I personally don’t like Trump but Trump is smart and will come to the same conclusion that U have I think. And that conclusion is that Florida is the key.
Trump days lots of things that become inoperative several hours later.
The Lib or Con media can’t report him accuracy and has to resort to distortions that Cruzies like to latch onto.
A case in point among many.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3427812/posts?page=117#117
Only if you can eliminate the voter fraud in Philly. Otherwise, if it is close, the Dems will win...
I’m hoping that Trump, who dares to go where most Republicans fear to go, will take that problem on bigtime.
BS. Trump has flaws, he didn’t come down from the Mount and the tablet in his hand us not the Decalogue.
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