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To: Political Junkie Too
That's why listening to Bob Barr of Georgia last week was so maddening. Barr made it clear that he intended to represent the wishes of the voters only for as long as he was legally compelled to do so. A delegate who felt a true affinity to the voters would be an advocate for their candidate in later rounds, not flee them at the first opportunity. -PJ

Using that logic, the nomination process would be deadlocked forever if Trump didn't have 1237.

218 posted on 05/02/2016 11:37:58 AM PDT by joesbucks
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To: joesbucks
Using that logic, the nomination process would be deadlocked forever if Trump didn't have 1237.

Not necessarily. One doesn't expect the leader to fold, the laggards would give in first. And certainly, a delegate for the leader doesn't admit that they are a seat-warmer for the leader and can't wait to switch.

One of the side effects is the change to rule 40 for this cycle. Prior to 2012, the rule was that a candidate needed a plurality of delegates in five state to be eligible for nomination; the rule was changed in 2012 to require a majority of delegates in eight states. The effect is that only Trump and Cruz are eligible.

In the past, there might have been three to five names entered into nomination, so that the "brokering," if you will, in later rounds was the lesser candidates dropping out and endorsing a remaining candidate. This process would continue until a consensus victor emerged or repeated rounds showed a deadlock and a deal was reached.

Now, because of the tighter rule 40, we are starting with two instead of ending with two. So we'll skip the brokering and go straight to dealing. The political capital will be the currency. In one camp will be the popular vote, in the other camp will be the stealth delegates. In the former camp will be the feeling of a rigged and cheated process, and in the latter camp will be the feeling of being disliked and aligning with the supposed opposition. The leverage will probably be the future viability back home of intransigent delegates who are bucking the voters. In successive rounds, it will likely be the Cruz delegates who defect back to the popular winner, especially if they (in the states) I think that winning the White House is still the goal, as opposed to Washington Republicans who think the goal is to preserve their seats on the gravy train.

-PJ

247 posted on 05/02/2016 12:03:20 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too (If you are the Posterity of We the People, then you are a Natural Born Citizen.)
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