Posted on 04/29/2016 11:39:00 AM PDT by GilGil
Lots of folks believe in the Rush/Levin Cruz spin. Many here at FR still holding on for a miracle. He’s dead jim.
Yes, but Tead is still in the driver’s seat with 566 or so.
Trump hasn’t got a chance...
Oui!
Yes, but Tead is still in the driver’s seat with 566 or so.
Trump hasn’t got a chance...
Oui!
______________________________
Absolutely correct. As soon as Cruz loses Indiana, he will announce his cabinet picks!
I voted for Cruz...
...but its over.
I wonder what Levin thinks the plan is? Trump will get to 1,237.
Local PA guy here.
current run is Trump go the 17 deleagates that are committed.
counts of the remaining 54 delegates show he has 44 of them looked up on the first ballot.
so that, according to this site:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/republicans/
is 957 +44 (verbal agreement) or 1001 delegates. He could, in theory get as many as 1011, though a look at the delegates elected seem to indicate he will get no more than another 2 or 3, unless Cruz of Kasich drops out.
he should pick up another 28~31 delegates on Tuesday next, assuming Trump wins by around 5 points but does not go over 50 percent.
I used to like Levin and Limbaugh. I no longer have any idea who they are anymore. They sound like their souls have been snatched and foreigners are inside them.
Cruz has destroyed his political future.
He will never be more than Senator, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him primaried or straight up defeated by a Democrat.
Sundance has him at 48 Trump and Cruz 9 for Indiana.
Sorry not Sundance but Jim Hoft.
Given very poor results going forward, most of the polling prediction programs have Trump picking up no less than 252 delegates, That is with Indiana at 29 for Trump. That assumes a bad showing with a win of only a few percent (+5).
Even with that Trump gets to 1253 delegates. Likely a lot more if even one state breaks for him.
Thing is Cruz is going to get a slight boost on May 10th. He is expected to win Nebraska and get all 36 delegates, and the polling on that day shows Trump only getting 23 of the WV delegates. So Cruz might have a slight momentum coming out of that which might give him a slightly better showing in Oregon and Washington of the 17th and 24th then the current polls would indicate.
That said it is a better to assume the enemy too strong. But even with a few favorable assumptions given the Cruz, Trump has it in the bag now. If he does win Indiana big (on the order of 44 to 51 delegates), then the possibility of a contested convention is also very slight.
What momentum for Cruz?
Here is what Cruz promises his supporters.
He guarantees that he will not win the delegate game on the first ballot.
He guarantees he has no idea whether he will win the 2nd, 3rd or 4th ballots.
That is what the Cruz momentum promises.
FWIW, and I do NOT doubt DJT, If he says it, I’d take that to the bank.
Green Papers:
Total Votes Trump, Donald John, Sr._______10,125,402_____39.65%
Hard:957___40.50%
Soft: 41____37.61%
Total:998___40.37%
I expect none significant, but it is possible that the press will spin his win in Nebraska as a big win, as he will likely get more delegates that day then Trump.
According to my wife, who was listening to the talks show folks, they were pumping Cruz all day.
A lot depends on Indiana. If Trump wins big we may see Nebraska change, but I doubt it.
In any case the real point was even assuming the lower end of the poll results, every thing breaks against him, Trump still ends up with 1253 delegates.
If events break for him, starting with a 44 to 51 delegate win in Indiana, he ends up with around 1329.
That’s one of Karl Rove’s lies. Someone should have called him out on it.
It is quite possible to win Allegheny County and lose the 14th District.
It is also quite possible to win Philadelphia County and lose either the 1st or the 2nd District (but very unlikely to lose both).
That said, 30 of 39 delegates endorsed by the Trump Campaign won.
1st & 2nd 1 for District Winner; 2 Uncommitted.
3rd - 1 for DW; 2 Uncommitted (but endorsed by Kasich)
4th, 11th, 18th - 3 for Trump
5th - 2 for Trump; 1 DW
6th - 1 Trump; 1 Cruz; 1 DW
7th - 3 for DW (Trump’s endorsed delegates lost)
Hmm....Delaware County is chopped up extensively...it might be possible to win the county and lose the district here as well.
8th...1 Trump, 1 DW, 1 Uncommitted (but endorsed by Kasich)
9th...1 Trump, 1 DW, 1 Uncommitted.
10th, 15th, 17th...2 Trump, 1 DW
12th...2 Trump, 1 Cruz
13th...3 DW. Again it’s possible to win Montco and lose the district.
14th...1 Kasich, 2 Uncommitted (but both were for Rubio)
16th...1 Cruz, 1 DW, 1 Uncommitted
I take it back about Delco...The 1st district portion is heavily Democrat...winner of the county is the winner of the 7th almost certainly.
Montco...harder to tell....Republicans didn’t run anyone for the 13th District in Congress.
Philly...very few R’s here...yes, it is possible to carry the county but lose the 1st or the 2nd. Delegates got 10k-12k in the 1st; 6k-8k in the 2nd.
Allegheny...Republicans didn’t run anyone for the 14th District in Congress. But the delegates got 15k-18k votes. Congressional nominees: 12th District got 34k votes, 18th District got 34k votes. There’s also usually a dropoff from Presidential vote to Congressional vote. So, yes, it’s very possible to win Allegheny and lose the 14th.
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