“McAullifs move in VA to allow 200,000 felons to vote seals VA.”
That buys a little advantage, but of those 200K, I doubt more than 10% of them will vote. And of that 10%, you’d probably see no more than 80% go for the wicked witch of whatever region she claims to be from since she’s a carpetbagger.
“PA just doesn’t have enough rural folks to off set the big lib vote in Philly and Pittsburgh.”
Philadelphia is a cesspool as is most of Pittsburgh. However, a lot of Pittsburgh’s ‘liberal’ vote are either current or former working class union voters. They are warming up to Trump. PA could be in play.
“All the states from MD northward have been stuck on stupid since 1992 and have only gotten deeper blue in recent years. Same for all the west coast states.”
Very true. Oregon has a libertarian bent to it that might like Trump though. However, Oregon is more than likely too far gone.
“CO and NV are solidly blue now as well.”
No. Not this time. Trending blue, yes, but far from solid.
“Trump just needs to hammer MI, OH and FL. His other states are in the bag.”
I’m sure he will. He has to win two of those three.
“If he can then may pick off NH, IA”
Those two are certainly going to be in play this time around too.
I don’t think Trump is going to win 40 states ... I do think his electoral map is going to look a lot like Bush’s map in 2000 but with Michigan and Pennsylvania going his direction. That’s more than enough to cause a lot of liberals to “flee the nation”, break down in tears, and claim that the whole country is stupid again.
Don’t let 2008 and 2012 skew your views too much ... 2008 was a wave election for the Dems. 2012 saw a drop off in support for Obama, but Romney was far too weak of a candidate to get a lot of conservative voters out to the polls.
Obama lost 4 million votes from 2008 to 2012 ... Romney only managed to pick up 1M more than McCain. The Rs can attract a LOT more voters this time around with a candidate like Trump. Don’t let the media let you think that Hillary is an inevitable candidate with Obama’s charisma ... she is *weak*. I think her ceiling is Obama’s 2012 totals in a best case scenario (adjusted a bit for population of course). That means that Trump only has to not screw up royally to win. He’s bringing back the voters that didn’t want types like Romney or McCain.
I think MD is also in play. MD came out BIG for Trump, bigger than they needed to in the primary.