Cruz supporters are going to realize what a terrible mistake it was to run this civil war deep into July. You’re going to realize that, just like his bomb throwing in the senate didn’t advance any cause, he will have destroyed any unity amongst the same “squishy Republicans, Independents and crossover Democrats he is so badly going to need in the swing states. A loss of Florida’s 29 electoral votes would require him to win WI and PA (and no, Kasich will not help him here) just to break even again; then carry the swing states of NC, VA,and OH.
At 8:01 on election night, because the voters he has insulted stay home, Ted Cruz will lose the great sunshine state of Florida, and with that, the election. (and no Wisconsin’s 10 delegates won’t make up for FL’s 29)
While you’re having a few beers to drown out the loss, you might do well to have a few shots along with it, because the GOP will lose Rubio’s Senate seat as well.
You make some good points about the electoral math...it’s a hard slog for any Republican candidate...
But, I think that much can happen between now and November. Cruz has shown that he is willing to fight, unlike Romney and McCain...
Also, Cruz will carve Hildy to pieces in the debates...he will draw the stark contrast needed to sway public opinion...IMHO